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- The Week in FX & Crypto: August 19, 2025
The Week in FX & Crypto: August 19, 2025
Real-World Trading Insight. No Hype, Just Edge.
mark schaefer
August 19, 2025
In This Issue:
BTC systematic analysis and correction target to 115,000
Weekly results: 12,999 points across crypto and FX markets
Implementation methodology: How to trade systematic structure once mapped
Key levels for the week ahead
Systematic Framework in Action
Last week's BTC analysis mapped the complete scenario with precision. Tuesday's newsletter outlined: "Watch for break above 123,205 - could signal final push before healthy correction... watching for eventual pullback to 115k-117k zone."
Result: Break above 123,205 → final push to 124,514 → systematic correction delivered to 115,000. 8,205 points from break below 123,205.
BTC Daily
Newsletter Analysis
Crypto:
BTC 8,205 points (conservative entry on break back below old high 123,205 down to 115,000)
FX:
EUR/USD +151 points from 1.1664 pivot (long and short)
GBP/AUD +94 points continuation from last week
Real-Time Analysis
Crypto:
BTC bearish daily divergence 3,910 points
ETH bearish reversals +303 points net
FX:
GBP +212 points from divergences (GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD)
EUR/USD +124 points from bullish reversal on UK square up
Total Performance: +12,999 points
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results: Implementation varies by individual approach.
How to Trade Systematic Structure
Once the structure was mapped (“…break above 123,205 for final push before correction”), the lower timeframes provided multiple reversal opportunities when it actually played out:
First Opportunity: Bearish divergence right off the new high on 30 min chart
Second Opportunity: Two Reversal bars
Third Opportunity: Break back below previous high 123,205
Risk Parameter: Clear invalidation above the new high
BTC 30min
ETH: Learning from Setbacks
ETH demonstrated why systematic approach matters. Initial bearish setup was negated (-90 points), but maintaining systematic discipline led to a second opportunity. Bearish reversal from 4,618 delivered 393 points to 4,225, resulting in net positive performance (+303 points) despite the initial setback.
Professional trading isn't about being right every time—it's about systematic risk management and staying disciplined when setups don't work initially.
Key Levels for the Week Ahead
EUR/USD: Strong bearish confluences: Daily overbought, 4hr bearish divergence AND reversal bar from overbought levels. First real support at 1.1601 (38% Fib), then 1.1561 (50% Fib).
GBP/AUD: Bearish daily reversal Friday from overbought levels. Key support/target at 2.0490 (3-month channel support and 61.8% Fib). Pattern negated above 2.0866.
EUR/AUD: Channel resistance at 1.8080 remains key level to watch.
EUR/GBP: Bullish daily divergence with support at .8600/10.
Community Growth
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Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a quantitative portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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