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- The week in FX and Crypto: September 9, 2025
The week in FX and Crypto: September 9, 2025
Real-World Trading Insight. No Hype, Just Edge.
mark schaefer
September 09, 2025
In This Issue:
When timeframes disagree but levels still work
This week's precise calls and how they played out
BTC case study: Trading mixed signals tactically
Key levels for the week ahead
Subscriber Poll: Share your ideas for future issues!
Mixed signals all week, but the flagged levels held. GBP/AUD dropped straight-line to 2.0486 exactly, BTC resistance worked at 113,392, GBP/USD delivered the called 1% bounce. 3,300+ points total
GBPAUD
Last Week's Flagged Levels
GBP/AUD 2.0486: +164 points
Hit support exactly, bounced straight back to 2.0650 in one day
BTC 113,392 resistance: +3,000 points
Topped just below called resistance level, then dropped to 110,300
GBP/USD 1.3419: +136 points
Called 0.75-1% bounce from oversold conditions, delivered exactly 1.01%
Total: 3,300+ points from flagged levels despite mixed timeframe signals
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
When Timeframes Disagree: BTC
BTC gave conflicting signals this week:
4-hour: Near overbought
Daily: Momentum pointing up and moving from oversold
When timeframes disagree like this, price usually goes sideways. Directional strategies don't work as well compared to range-based setups.
My approach: focus on the levels instead of trying to pick a direction. Don't force trades when signals conflict - wait for price to reach your key zones. Had resistance flagged at 113,392 - that's what mattered, not which timeframe was "right."
BTC stalled just shy of that 38% Fibonacci retracement level. From there, it dropped more than 3,000 points.
The Week Ahead
Key levels I'm watching - focus on price action at these zones when timeframes send mixed messages:
BTC: Range-bound between 109,500/110k support and 115k resistance. No new highs or lows expected - trade tactically within the range.
ETH: Bullish hidden divergence setup - higher price low with same/lower momentum low signals trend continuation. Look for strong bounce from current levels. Resistance at weekly high 4500 area, then upper Bollinger Band 4800, then 4955 high.
ETH-Hidden Divergence
USD Index: Sold off on jobs data but still within broader range with volatility at lows. No breakout yet despite obvious fundamental catalyst. Trade tactical reactions at range boundaries rather than chasing the obvious "bad data = sell USD" narrative.
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How to position when timeframes conflict
Reading market structure through mixed signals
Position sizing strategies for uncertain setups
When to wait vs when to act on partial information
Advanced multi-timeframe analysis techniques
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Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a quantitative portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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