In This Issue

• FX Recap — Payrolls beat, USD/JPY tells a different story

• EUR/USD — Multiple attempts at the 200-day, none held on a close

• USD/JPY — 4% drop, triple bottom taken out, 150 in sight

• Gold — Back below the 200-day, no bias, waiting for a catalyst

• Crude — Six straight days of higher lows, Iran keeps the bid alive

• BTC — Above the 200-day for the first time since November, all eyes on 69,842

• Week Ahead — FOMC September 15-16, BOJ September 18

FX Recap

Two stories drove the week — and neither was the one everyone was watching coming in.

August payrolls came in at 162K against a 55K consensus. Clean beat. Prior months revised higher. September hike back on the table. Dollar bid.

Then USD/JPY stalled around 160.30 Monday then dropped 4% to a low of 154.06 by Thursday — breaking below the 200-day moving average on the way down. BOJ rate hike expectations were building all week, with Governor Ueda's comments and board member Takata calling for moving "nimbly" on rates. But the speed and size of the move had people talking. No confirmed intervention — but the timing was interesting. The move came off a key technical level, the market was positioned long dollars, and the BOJ has shown before they're not above adding fuel to a fire that's already burning. Whether there was a hand in it or not, the result was the same.

Crude stayed bid all week — six consecutive days of higher lows, pushing above $93 for the first time since late July. Iran tensions back in the headlines. Even with the dollar getting a payrolls bid, crude held its own.

Gold closed back below its 200-day moving average at the end of August and couldn't reclaim it last week despite multiple attempts. Settled in the middle of the range with momentum neutral. No strong bias either way.

My read: payrolls gave the dollar a bid and the BOJ gave JPY a bigger one. September FOMC is live. BOJ meets September 18th. Two central banks, one week apart. It won't be quiet.

EUR/USD

Broke back below the 200-day moving average at 1.1634 at the end of August and couldn't get back above it last week despite multiple attempts. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday all saw price trade at or above it intraday — none of them held on a closing basis.

Momentum worked against it throughout — stochastics only just moved out of overbought and are still pointing lower. Now sitting in neutral territory.

Resistance
- 1.1634 — 200-day moving average
- 1.1711 — double top (Aug 20/21) and upper Bollinger Band confluence

Support
- 1.1563 — 100-day moving average
- 1.1513 — lower Bollinger Band and 50-day moving average

USD/JPY

Stalled around 160.30 at the start of last week then dropped 4% — trading to a low of 154.06 by yesterday afternoon. Wednesday it broke and closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time in three weeks. Key pivot.

This is now the third test of the 155.00 area. First was early May, second was early August at 155.23, third was last week's low at 154.06. The old saying — doubles hold but triples fold. Monday took out all three lows.

Resistance
- 155.00/155.20 — triple bottom now acting as resistance
- 155.80 — lower Bollinger Band

Support
- 152.10 — double bottom from January/February
- 150.00 — key pivot on the way up and psychological level

Gold

Closed back below the 200-day moving average at 4,535 on August 28th. Thursday last week it pushed back up to test it but fell short — settling in the middle of the weekly range at 4,429, right between the 20 and 100-day moving averages.

Momentum has normalized to neutral. No strong technical bias from here.

Resistance
- 4,471.56 — 20-day moving average
- 4,535.27 — 200-day moving average
- 4,671.97 — upper Bollinger Band

Support
- 4,349.82 — 100-day moving average
- 4,258.10 — lower Bollinger Band
- 4,246.65 — 50-day moving average

Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)

Closed above the 100-day moving average at 86.82 last Tuesday for the first time in over a month. Since the gap open on August 31st crude has been bid with no meaningful pullback — six consecutive days of higher lows and five straight days trading on the upper Bollinger Band without backing off.

Momentum crossed into overbought mid-week and is still there, still pointing higher.

Resistance
- 92.98 — upper Bollinger Band
- 93.14 — last week's high

Support
- 86.71 — 100-day moving average
- 85.96 — 20-day moving average
- 83.78 — gap from last week's open

BTC

Trading sideways for the past three weeks between 82,666 and 76,238 after breaking cleanly above the 200-day moving average at 69,034. Three bearish reversals over that period — the last two with bearish divergence, momentum making lower highs on each new price high.

The close below 79,311 Monday marked the fourth bearish reversal and a bearish engulfing candle — strengthening the pattern. Momentum remains overbought. With consecutive bearish candles and momentum where it is, watch for potential continuation on a break below the three-week range.

Resistance
82,266 — Friday's reversal bar high / top of range
83,171 — upper Bollinger Band

Support
77,872 — 20-day moving average
76,238 — bottom of range

Week Ahead

The FOMC is a week away and the quiet period has started — no Fed speakers between now and the decision. What happens in markets this week sets the table.

Iran and crude stay the wildcard. The bid has been real — one headline either way and the inflation story moves with it going right into the meeting.

USD/JPY is the other one to watch. 150 is in sight. BOJ meets September 18th — one day after the Fed. Two central banks, one week apart.

Stay close to the headlines.

Market Notes

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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark

Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.

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