- Meridian Compass
- Posts
- The week in FX and Crypto: September 30, 2025
The week in FX and Crypto: September 30, 2025
Real-World Trading Insight. No Hype, Just Edge.
mark schaefer
September 30, 2025
Big request from last week's poll: managing positions around major data releases. That's covered below after the market structure update.
In This Issue:
Multiple support/resistance levels delivered as called
Managing positions around major data releases (Poll Requests)
Week ahead
Market Structure Update:
Previous Week: Multiple Support and Resistance Levels Delivered
EUR/USD - complete sequence:
Resistance at 1.1820-30 → down to 1.1727. Support at 1.1717-20 → bounce to 1.1804. Break call: below 1.1715-20 targets 1.1653. Delivered: straight to 1.1653, held, reversed to 1.1705.
EUR/USD Fibonacci Sequence
GBP/AUD: Called 2.0480-90 channel resistance. Tested 2.0485, sold off to 2.0360.
GBP/AUD Channel
EUR/USD: +300 points. GBP/AUD: +125 points. Multiple resistance and support calls working in sequence across both pairs.
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
Trading Around Major Data Releases
Several of you asked about position management during big economic announcements (NFP, CPI, FOMC, etc.). Here's what experienced traders typically do:
Pre-Release Strategy:
Know your calendar - Mark high-impact release dates and times in advance
Expect reduced liquidity - Markets often go sideways 1-2 hours before major releases
Choose your approach - Decide beforehand whether to trade it, avoid it, or flatten positions
Position Management Options:
Flatten everything - Close all positions 15-30 minutes before the release and clear pending orders
Avoid trading entirely - Stay out of the market on major data days
Active management - If staying in, be ready for wider spreads and potential margin calls
Post-Release Approach:
Wait for initial chaos to settle - Let the first 5-10 minutes of volatility pass
Trade smaller size - Reduce position size significantly when re-entering
Watch for pullbacks - Often better entries come after the initial spike retraces
Expect system delays - Platform lags are common during high volatility
Why This Matters More for Short-Term Traders
Most of you are day traders or very short-term focused. If your stop loss or target sits within 1% of current levels, you can easily get stopped out of a perfectly good idea during data volatility. The market has a tendency to gravitate toward stops during these events - it's almost a coin flip whether you get hit before your thesis plays out.
Longer-Term vs. Short-Term Impact: Medium to longer-term models handle this volatility much better because they're big-picture focused. A 1% swing either direction won't trigger their stops or targets. But if you're trading tight ranges with nearby levels, these releases can destroy otherwise solid setups.
Different Approaches: Some traders specifically target the data releases - either trading the initial reaction or fading the moves afterward. But that's a specialized style requiring expert volatility-based position sizing and lightning-fast execution. Not recommended for most retail traders.
Key Reality Check: Most retail day traders lose money trying to trade major data releases directly. The consensus among professional traders: either get flat beforehand or avoid trading these events entirely.
Week Ahead
Key levels for the week ahead:
ETH: Oversold with momentum turned up. Look for test of upper Bollinger band at 4817. Negated on close below 4050.
GBPAUD: Bearish until back inside channel.
USD Index: Momentum still overbought. Room to test lower Bollinger band at 96.40. Negated on close above 98.00
Community Growth
Thanks for reading! If this letter added value, please share it with one trader you know. You can also follow @schaef45809 on X for real-time updates
Coming Soon: Meridian Compass Pro
What I'd cover: 30+ years of institutional risk management and market structure reading.
Spot divergences before they become obvious?
Use multi-timeframe analysis for stronger signals?
Consistently size positions with proper risk?
Use Fibonacci for retracements and targets?
Know when to sit on the sidelines?
Join the early access list by replying "PRO" to this email.
What Would You Like to See More Of?
Help shape future Meridian Compass content—let me know what's most valuable. Select one of the topics below:
What content should I focus on in coming issues? |
If you have other topics you’d like to suggest for future issues, please email me directly at [email protected]
Questions? Feedback? Reply to this email—I read every response.
MERIDIAN COMPASS • Institutional FX Intelligence
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a quantitative portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER