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- The Week in FX and Crypto: September 29, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: September 29, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
September 29, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Dollar softened on Iran deal hopes and position squaring into week end, Iran talks hit crude
EUR/USD — Heavy all week, deeply oversold, key support approaching
USD/JPY — Rallied all week then reversed Friday, feeling heavy
Gold — Broke below 50 and 100-day, first close below lower Bollinger Band since June
Crude — 10% drop on Iran talks, Houthis keeping the floor in
BTC — 15% rally to year highs, bearish engulfing at the top
FX Recap
The week after a Fed hike is usually about digesting what happened. This one was about what happens next.
Multiple Fed speakers in five days. Every appearance got picked apart for clues on October and December. The tone stayed hawkish — markets are now pricing two more hikes before year end. Dollar held its ground early in the week on the back of that repricing.
Then Friday the dollar softened — Iran deal headlines gained traction at the UN and position squaring into week end took the bid out of the dollar.
Iran did the rest. WTI fell nearly 10% on the week to $92.41 as US-Iran talks gained traction. The phased Hormuz deal framework — Iran reopens the Strait, Washington lifts the blockade — put real pressure on crude. The Houthis kept the floor in with strikes on Saudi infrastructure, but the diplomatic story dominated.
The dollar ended the week off its highs, crude well off the $106.75 peak, and the market heading into this week with one question — does the Iran deal actually get done this time?
My read: same framework as the past month — Fed and Iran. Last week the Fed won. This week Iran took some of it back. Neither story is finished.
EUR/USD
Traded heavy throughout the week — the low was over 1% off the week's high. Momentum has been deeply oversold since September 16th with no sign of turning yet.
Coming into key support now. The last time EUR was this oversold was the end of July — right before price rallied from 1.1350 to 1.1712. Watch for a strong reversal off these levels.
Key Levels
Resistance
1.1490 — 38.2% Fibonacci (August high to Monday's low)
1.1512 — 20-day moving average
1.1532 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
1.1353 — Monday's low
1.1324 — low for the year
1.1318 — lower Bollinger Band
USD/JPY
Rallied all week then reversed on Friday — giving back a good portion of the week's gains. Momentum was overbought but didn't cross over to the downside until Monday. USD/JPY can continue to feel heavy toward 155-156 before momentum normalizes back to neutral.
Key Levels
Resistance
159.03 — last week's high
159.50 — upper Bollinger Band
Support
156.51 — Monday's low
156.17 — 20-day moving average
Gold
Heavy for most of last week — Thursday's price action took out both the 50 and 100-day moving averages, closing below both after four consecutive closes above them. The 50-day continues to converge on the 100-day but hasn't crossed yet. The last crossover was the beginning of May when the 50 crossed below the 100 — gold dropped from 4,758.40 to the June low shortly after.
Monday saw a hard selloff with a close below the lower Bollinger Band — the first close below it since the end of June.
Key Levels
Resistance
4,193 — lower Bollinger Band
4,241 — double bottom / pivot on the way down
4,317/4,324 — 50 and 100-day moving averages
Support
3,955 — June low
Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)
Sold off sharply to start the week on the back of Iran talk headlines at the UN — dropping over 10% before stabilizing. No new developments on the deal and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia put a floor in. Price bounced twice to test the 38.2% Fibonacci at 95.66 but couldn't manage a close above it.
Key Levels
Resistance
95.66 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15th high to last week's low) and 20-day moving average
97.78 — 50% Fibonacci
99.90 — 61.8% Fibonacci
Support
88.67 — last week's double bottom
88.16 — 50-day moving average
86.64 — 100-day moving average
BTC
Rallied over 15% into last Monday's high above 87k — levels not seen since the beginning of the year. After two consecutive closes above the upper Bollinger Band, BTC printed a bearish engulfing candle and closed back inside the band. Momentum is overbought and has now crossed over to the downside. Last week's high should act as strong resistance as momentum normalizes.
Key Levels
Resistance
87,267 — upper Bollinger Band
87,350 — reversal bar high
87,455 — last week's high
Support
80,351 — 20-day moving average
77,999 — 38.2% Fibonacci (August low to last week's high)
75,078 — 50% Fibonacci
Week Ahead
Busiest data week of the month.
Friday is the one to watch — September payrolls. August came in at 162K, well above consensus. The September number sets the tone for whether the Fed hikes again in October. Every data point between now and then gets read through that lens.
Tuesday brings JOLTS and Consumer Confidence. Wednesday ADP and ISM Manufacturing Thursday.
Iran and the Strait remain the wildcard on crude. Phased deal framework is on the table but both sides have been here before — the June MOU collapsed weeks after it was signed. One headline either way and energy moves fast.
Stay close to the data.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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