In This Issue

• FX Recap — Fed hikes, BOJ hikes but yen sells off

• EUR/USD — Bounced off post-FOMC low, 50 and 100-day converging

• USD/JPY — 3.3% rally off the double bottom, stalled just below the 200-day

• Gold — Rallied off the lows, 50 and 100-day converging, momentum turning

• Crude — Broke below $100, momentum overbought and rolling over

• BTC — 16% rally off the lows, broke out of four-week range

• Week Ahead — Ten Fed speakers, PCE Friday, Iran still the wildcard

FX Recap

Three central banks in four days — and the week delivered.

Fed hiked Wednesday to 3.75%-4.00% — first hike since 2023. The decision was priced in. What wasn't fully priced was the signal that another hike could come before year end. Dollar jumped 0.7% on the day, biggest single-day move in three months.

Crude hit 106.75 intraday last week — Middle East escalation driving the move. Higher energy prices kept inflation fears alive and gave the Fed cover to sound as hawkish as it did.

BOJ hiked to 1.25% Friday — highest Japanese rates in 31 years. Should have been yen positive. Wasn't. Two dissents and Ueda failing to convince markets that more hikes were coming fast turned it into a classic buy the rumor sell the fact. USD/JPY moved sharply higher after the decision. The yen that had been grinding stronger all week reversed hard.

BOE held but signaled more tightening ahead. Sterling sold off anyway — the dollar was the only game in town.

My read: Japan actually raised rates and the yen sold off. That tells you everything about where we are. The Fed is the only central bank that matters right now and it just reminded everyone of that.

EUR/USD

Bounced off the post-FOMC low from last week. Stochastic momentum is oversold but has crossed over and is now pointing higher.

Worth noting — the distance between the 50 and 100-day moving averages is the tightest it's been since June. That suggests the 50-day may be headed for a cross back above the 100-day. The last time the 50 was above the 100 was back in April.

Resistance

• 1.1539 — 50-day moving average

• 1.1546 — 100-day moving average

• 1.1628 — 200-day moving average

Support

• 1.1454 — Friday's reversal bar low / post-FOMC low

• 1.1353 — July low

• 1.1324 — 2026 low (June)

USD/JPY

Rallied 3.3% off the double bottom from earlier in the month — trading to a high of 158.05 before settling back. Most of the move started at the beginning of last week with very little retracement. Interesting that the rally fell just short of the 200-day moving average at 158.44 — that level should act as a key pivot from here.

Momentum has moved into neutral territory so the next 1-2% is less clear from here.

Worth watching in the near term — the 50-day moving average crossed below the 100-day on September 14th. The last time that crossover happened was August 2025 when USD/JPY was trading at 147.00.

Resistance

• 158.05 — Last week’s high

• 158.44 — 200-day moving average

• 158.86 — 50-day moving average

Support

• 156.08 — 38.2% Fibonacci (Double bottom/Friday’s high)

• 155.47 — 50% Fib

• 154.86 — 61.8% Fib

Gold

Rallied last week — closing near the high at 4,378.63 after making a low of 4,235.59 Wednesday. The move found support right at the 50-day moving average overnight low of 4,291.69, which was also near where it closed last Monday.

The 50 and 100-day moving averages are converging and the 50 looks set to cross back above the 100 — adding to that, stochastic momentum has crossed up from oversold. Worth noting the last time the 50 crossed the 100 was early May — gold dropped from 4,770 to the June low of 3,943.29 shortly after. This time the cross would be in the other direction.

Resistance

• 4,399.60 — Friday's high

• 4,411.78 — 38.2% Fibonacci (August high to last Wednesday's low)

• 4,466.21 — 50% Fibonacci

Support

• 4,318.79 — 100-day moving average

• 4,300.36 — 50-day moving average

• 4,235.59 — last week's low

Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)

Traded in a range last week between 99.10 and 106.75 before breaking to the downside Monday. Currently trading below the key pivot level at 93.50 — the July high. A close back below there opens the door for a test of the 50 and 100-day moving averages converging around 87.20.

Momentum is still overbought and has crossed lower — that increases the likelihood of further downside before it normalizes.

Resistance

• 93.50 — Currently testing the key pivot level

• 99.10 — last week's range bottom / support

• 106.75 — last week's high

Support

• 87.20 — 50 and 100-day moving averages converging

• 81.30 — 200-day moving average

BTC

Strong rally since the Fed — up over 16% off the mid-week low from last week. A large part of the move came yesterday after BTC broke out of its four-week range. Momentum has moved into neutral territory so some consolidation before the next move wouldn't be surprising.

Resistance

• 90,460 — area it last broke down from in January

• 97,922 — high for the year

• 100,000 — key pivot where it broke down from in November 2025

Support

• 82,266 — resistance level from the previous four weeks

• 74,910 — support from four-week range

• 74,162 — 50-day moving average

Week Ahead

Quieter on the central bank front — but not quiet.

Ten Fed speakers this week. After last week's hike and Warsh's signal that another could come, every appearance gets read for clues on what December looks like. Watch the tone — any pushback on further hikes and the dollar softens.

PCE Friday is the number. First inflation read since the hike. Hot print validates Warsh's hawkish stance. Soft print opens the debate about whether last week's move was the last one.

Flash PMIs Tuesday across the US and Europe. GDP Thursday. Iran and crude stay the wildcard — Strait still unresolved, Houthis still active.

Stay close to the headlines.

Market Notes

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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark

Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.

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