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- The week in FX and Crypto: October 7, 2025
The week in FX and Crypto: October 7, 2025
Real-World Trading Insight. No Hype, Just Edge.
mark schaefer
October 07, 2025
In This Issue:
Flagged inflection points delivered 822 points across FX and crypto
EUR/USD Fibonacci sequence: Multiple clean reactions at key zones
Why "tick through" doesn't mean "break"
Crypto framework: Weekly/daily momentum alignment
Week Ahead: Key zones across majors
Market Structure Recap
Last week's flagged inflection points delivered clean reactions—continuing a 4-month pattern. EUR/USD Fibonacci zones produced multiple measured moves. ETH oversold bounce from 4,100 area played out as expected. Total measured reactions: 822 points.
Over 4 months, flagged zones have produced measurable reactions in over 75% of instances. These are observations of market structure, not trading results.
EUR/USD — Fibonacci Zone Reactions
The Fibonacci sequence I flagged on X produced multiple reactions at key zones. First test of 1.1718 (38.2%) Fib zone produced a 75 point rally. First test of Fib at 1.1653 (50%) held and launched a rally to 1.1779 (+126 pips). First test of the 38.2% retracement around 1.1750 backed off 38 points. Price then topped near the 50% Fib rejection zone(1.1779) before selling to 1.1683, another 96-point reaction.
These aren't separate trades—they're measured reactions showing how price respects Fibonacci structure.
Key zones working: 1.1653 (50% Fib support), 1.1780 area (50% Fib resistance)
USD Index — Resistance Band Holding
Respected the 98.00–98.20 resistance band (50/100-day MA cluster) and drifted 20-30 points lower as expected. No clean directional move yet—range-bound action continues.
GBP/AUD — Channel Discipline
Bearish bias below channel resistance at 2.0480–90 remains intact. Rallies have become increasingly muted—peak at 2.0445 last week. The channel structure continues to define the price action/resistance.
ETH — Oversold Momentum Turn
Flagged oversold momentum turn-up from the 4,100 zone with structural cutoff at 4,050. After a brief test to 4,093, price rallied straight to current highs at 4,562. +462 points from flagged inflection.
Reading Levels: "Tick Through" vs "Break"
Markets often run stops at obvious levels. A tick through doesn't mean the level broke—it usually means stops got run.
I wait for a close beyond the level with no quick snap-back. Wicks that pierce through but close back inside = stop runs. Closes that hold beyond the level = actual breaks.
The retest after a break usually offers the cleanest entry with defined risk. If EUR breaks above 1.1780 and closes above, the pullback to retest that level often provides better risk/reward than chasing the initial breakout.
This typically applies across most markets. The concept stays the same: distinguish between stop-hunting and genuine structural breaks by watching where price closes, not just where it trades.
Crypto Analysis — Multi-Timeframe Momentum
Several readers requested more crypto analysis. Here's how I read BTC and ETH using the same framework I apply to FX: multi-timeframe momentum alignment and structural inflection zones.
ETH — Approaching Resistance Cluster
Weekly timeframe: Momentum overbought and crossed down
Daily timeframe: Momentum still pointing higher, not yet overbought
Resistance cluster ahead: 4,763 (upper Bollinger Band), 4,766 (Sept 13 high), 4,955 (Aug 24 high)
If ETH extends into this resistance zone and shows reversal signs, both weekly and daily momentum would align to the downside. That creates cleaner structural context for the next move.
BTC — Elevated But Comfortable
Weekly timeframe: Momentum in neutral zone, turned up; price at upper Bollinger Band with ATH nearby (as of 10/4)
Daily timeframe: Overbought, but momentum still pointing higher; trading outside upper Bollinger Band
The wide summer consolidation reset prior overbought conditions. With weekly momentum neutral, BTC can sustain these elevated levels. Nothing in the weekly/daily alignment argues against higher prices from here.
Week Ahead
Current setup: EUR/USD trading within defined Fibonacci structure. USD Index mid-range with no directional edge. ETH pressing resistance while BTC holds elevated structure with weekly momentum supportive.
USD Index
Mid-range, neutral momentum. Expect two-way trade until price holds beyond recent boundaries on close basis. No edge in the middle of the range.
EUR/USD
Range Bound until we see a sustained move outside of the range.
Resistance zone: 1.1775–1.1785 (50% Fib area); 1.1810–1.1820 (61.8% Fib)
Support zone: 1.1645–1.1655 (50% Fib)
GBP/AUD
Bearish bias persists under channel resistance at 2.0480–90. Momentum turned up, so first retests of channel underside can produce reactions before continuation lower. Daily close back above channel would neutralize downside bias.
ETH
Watching 4,763–4,955 resistance cluster. Reversal signs at those levels would align weekly/daily momentum to the downside, creating structural context for the next leg.
BTC
Weekly momentum neutral and turned up, daily overbought but still pressing. The technical structure supports further upside. No obvious resistance until new all-time highs.(as of 10/4)
Note on zones: Fibs and technical levels are zones (5–10 pips), not exact prices. The first touch of a zone usually offers the cleanest, tightest-risk setup before the level gets tested multiple times.
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Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a quantitative portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
4-month track record: over 75% of flagged inflection zones have produced measurable market reactions.
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