In This Issue

• FX Recap — Dollar hit 18-month highs then held them despite soft payrolls

• EUR/USD — Took out key support, limited bounce, momentum starting to turn

• USD/JPY — Sideways to slightly higher, stalled just below the 200-day

• Gold — Sharp selloff Monday, consolidating near the lows

• Crude — Range bound with support holding, momentum turning up

• BTC — Sideways consolidation, momentum back into overbought, 90k in sight

• Week Ahead — FOMC minutes Wednesday, bond auctions, Iran the wildcard

FX Recap

Dollar traded to new highs barely backing off after payrolls missed badly.

DXY opened the week near 101 and ground higher throughout — pushing to an 18-month high Thursday before payrolls hit Friday. 10-year Treasury yields through 5%, Fed speakers keeping October hike alive. Dollar looked like it was going to continue the rally.

PCE Wednesday came in softer than expected — August core PCE at 3.0% vs 3.4% forecast. Dollar barely reacted. The move was tracking yields more than rate pricing at this point.

Then Friday — 29K jobs against a 90K consensus. August revised from 162K down to 133K. July revised to -10K. Unemployment ticked to 4.2%. October hike odd came off.

But the dollar held. Closing the week just off the 18-month highs. Payrolls missed and the dollar barely responded.

WTI traded sideways in the low 90s all week — opened near $92, held that range throughout. Iran no-deal headlines kept the floor in but crude went nowhere while the dollar story dominated.

Given the PCE miss and the payrolls number, the dollar should have sold off more than it did.

Watch if USD catches up to the data this week.

EUR/USD

Selling continued all last week — taking out the key 1.1300/20 support zone and staying offered through most of the week, hitting a low of 1.1215 Thursday. The limited bounce after payrolls was surprising. Stopping just below the old 1.1300 pivot at 1.1286 was significant — now we know the level to watch if EUR/USD starts to reverse.

Momentum has been deeply oversold since mid-September but is starting to show signs of turning. Crossed up at the end of last week but still in oversold territory.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 1.1286 — post-payroll high

• 1.1300/20 — old support zone / old lows

• 1.1373 — 38.2% Fibonacci (August high to Monday's low)

Support

• 1.1170 — lower Bollinger Band

• 1.1161 — Monday's low

USD/JPY

Traded sideways to slightly higher over the past week — opening this week just 50 pips above where it closed last Monday at 157.36. Momentum is still elevated but has crossed down despite the move higher into the end of last week.

Notably, last week's high stopped just below the key 200-day moving average at 158.50. The 50-day moving average is now below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages — suggesting the downside may be vulnerable in the near term.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 158.52 — 200-day moving average

• 159.00 — double top from September 24/25

• 159.55 — 100-day moving average

Support

• 156.69 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 10 low to September 24 high)

• 155.95 — 50% Fibonacci

• 155.25 — 61.8% Fibonacci

Gold (GCZ6)

Sold off sharply Monday — trading to a low of 4,143 and closing below the lower Bollinger Band at 4,148.50. Spent the rest of the week consolidating between the Monday low and 4,259. Coming into this week sitting near the bottom of that range. Momentum is oversold but crossed down — suggesting more downside before a bounce.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 4,259 — Friday's high

• 4,297 — 20-day moving average

• 4,344 — 100-day moving average

Support

• 4,140/50 — bottom of the consolidation range

• 4,110 — lower Bollinger Band

Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)

After the initial selloff crude traded in a range supported by 88.50 — a level that held on multiple attempts. It did briefly trade below that support but snapped right back, closing the week near the bottom of the range.

The key moving averages are stacked in order — 50 above the 100, 100 above the 200. Combined with stochastic momentum crossing up from oversold, that suggests potential for a bounce from here. A break and close below 88.50 would challenge that picture.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 95.20 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15th high to Friday's low)

• 95.86 — 20-day moving average

• 97.41 — 50% Fibonacci

Support

• 88.51 — 50-day moving average and multiple lows

• 86.25 — 100-day moving average

• 85.91 — lower Bollinger Band

BTC

Traded sideways over the past week between 82,500 and 87,200. The 85k-90k zone was significant support when BTC broke below 100k back in November 2025 — the consolidation here makes sense. Momentum has crossed back into overbought territory and is still pointing higher, suggesting potential to test 90k.

Key Levels

Resistance

• 87,397 — September high

• 94,415 — top of channel from January

• 97,588 — year-to-date high

Support

• 84,557 — bottom of two-week range

• 75,258 — 50-day moving average

• 73,489 — 200-day moving average

Week Ahead

Quiet on data — but FOMC minutes Wednesday are the main event.

The minutes cover the September meeting that delivered the first hike in three years. After last week's soft payrolls the market wants to know how much conviction there is inside the Fed for another move in October or December. Hawkish language and the dollar gets a bid. Any sign of division and the dollar softens further.

Bond auctions Thursday and Friday matter too — 10-year and 30-year. With yields already at multi-year highs a weak auction pushes them higher. That dynamic has been supporting the dollar all month.

Iran and crude stay the wildcard. No deal, no headlines — but the situation doesn't resolve quietly.

Stay close to the headlines.

Market Notes

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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark

Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.

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