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- The Week in FX and Crypto: October 28, 2025
The Week in FX and Crypto: October 28, 2025
Framework-Based Structure Analysis. Educational Only.
mark schaefer
October 28, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE:
Last week's range outlook delivered as mapped
EUR/CHF: SNB intervention rumors + the 2015 lesson
Market structure update: USD Index, GBP/AUD, USD/JPY
Week ahead outlook
Subscriber Poll: Please share your ideas for future issues!
Market Structure Update
Last week's range outlook delivered. USD complex remained directionless as mapped:
USD Index - Finished marginally higher at 98.75; range conditions holding (no break)
GBP/AUD - Closed -70 pts lower after false channel break above 2.0490. Failed back inside the channel.
USD/JPY - +1% on the week, but still inside the wider range. No meaningful breakout.
BTC - Flagged daily/4-hour alignment at 109,100 on October 23rd. Moved to 112,000 by week's end (+2,900 points / +2.7%). Framework delivered.
The Theme: Range persists. Multi-timeframe conflict from last week continues. No alignment yet.
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
EUR/CHF — Intervention ≠ Floor
The Setup:
Market chatter suggests the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may be intervening around the 0.9200 level in EUR/CHF. This is not confirmed, but the price action at that level is creating discussion.
EUR/CHF Weekly
EUR/CHF has found support multiple times at 0.9200 over recent weeks. When price consistently bounces from a specific level with no clear technical reason, central bank intervention is often suspected.
Why This Matters:
Central banks don't trade structure. They trade policy objectives. If the SNB is defending 0.9200, technical analysis becomes secondary to policy intent.
EUR/CHF LESSON: "FLOORS" AREN'T RISK-FREE
It can feel easy to go long against a central-bank "floor," assuming protection. That's what many did while the SNB defended 1.2000. But each test produced smaller bounces—a classic warning that support was weakening. Plenty of retail traders said, "I'll just leave a stop under 1.2000."
EUR/CHF 2015 SNB Floor Price dropped 30% in minutes
Big point: Stops are not guarantees. In fast markets/liquidity gaps, a stop can be filled far from your price—or not filled immediately at all. When the SNB pulled the bid in EUR/CHF (Jan 2015), price gapped through levels; slippage was extreme and some brokers failed.
Play it safer (educational):
Don't assume a defended level is a floor; size down or stand aside.
Expect gap risk around policy lines and headlines.
If you use stops, plan for slippage—your executed price can be much worse than your stop.
Educational only — not investment advice.
Week Ahead (USD focus)
Weekly USD looks coiled; daily has been mixed. The cleaner move usually starts when timeframes align. Into a busy macro week, I’m treating reactions as information, not signals. Expect range-expansion risk if alignment shows; otherwise range can persist.
Educational only.
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