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- The Week in FX and Crypto: October 27, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: October 27, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
October 27, 2026
In This Issue
Trader’s Note: Counter-trend, oversold doesn’t mean bounce
FX Recap: Euro weak on French bond stress, USD/JPY lowest since mid-September, sterling firm on UK inflation
EUR/USD: Capped by the 20-day, momentum crossed down
USD/JPY: Broke support, bullish reversal Friday, 50-day is the level
Gold: New multi-month low, double bottom, momentum still lower
Crude: Pulled back from Friday’s high, bearish momentum divergence, uptrend intact
BTC: Tight range, volatility at a new 2-month low, momentum oversold
Week Ahead: FOMC Wednesday, ECB Thursday, BoJ Friday
Trader’s Note
Gold (GCZ26) and USD/JPY both broke lower last week, and then Gold printed a double bottom and USD/JPY printed a bullish reversal off the low. That’s where counter-trend traders start looking for a bounce. But oversold isn’t a signal on its own. Gold’s momentum is still pointing lower, and a market can stay oversold while it keeps falling.
Waiting for momentum to turn costs the first part of the bounce, but it gives more confirmation. Entering early gets a better price with less confirmation. Counter-trend does have one advantage: the risk is clear. The idea is wrong if price makes a new low, so the stop goes a volatility-based distance beyond it, and the position is sized from that same distance.
The Fed on Wednesday and the BoJ on Friday are the next test for both.
For educational purposes only. Not trade advice.
FX Recap
The dollar finished the week little changed with the Fed expected to hold on Wednesday.
The euro was the weak against crosses hitting multi-month lows (GBP and CAD) and multi-year low against AUD. French government bond yields pushed above 5% for a time on Wednesday, the first time since 2002, as the government struggled to pass its budget.
Sterling was firm. UK inflation for September came in above expectations at 3.5%, and markets now price a Bank of England hike in November.
USD/JPY fell to its lowest level since mid-September, hitting 156 on Friday. A tech and AI selloff boosted demand for the yen, and hawkish talk from the Bank of Japan added to it. The pair bounced on Monday.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD finished last week mostly unchanged but came under pressure to start the week, trading down to a low of 1.1173 on Monday. The 20-day moving average continues to cap the topside. Price traded above it briefly three times last week but couldn’t get a close over it. The last close above was September 9. Momentum crossed down in the neutral zone.
Key Levels
Resistance
1.1217 20-day moving average
1.1260/65 last week’s double top
1.1295 upper Bollinger Band
Support
1.1173 Monday’s low
1.1139 lower Bollinger Band
1.1113 October 14 low
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke key support on Thursday, closing below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages and below the lower Bollinger Band. Friday printed a bullish reversal off a new low for the move, and momentum crossed up just before reaching oversold.
The 50-day moving average (157.49) is the key level to watch to see if it was a real breakdown.
Key Levels
Resistance
157.49 50-day moving average
157.91 20-day moving average
158.55 200-day moving average
Support
156.95 lower Bollinger Band
156.07 Friday’s bullish reversal bar low
Gold (GCZ6)
Gold made a new multi-month low on Thursday at 4,036.8 and closed below the lower Bollinger Band. The last time gold closed below the lower Bollinger Band was September 28, then price traded in a range for 3 weeks until the breakdown last week. Friday made another new low at 3,989.1, and then Monday printed a double bottom.
Momentum is oversold but still pointing lower. Watch to see if price follows momentum to another new low or if we see a bullish crossover and a subsequent bounce.
Key Levels
Resistance
4,036.5 lower Bollinger Band
4,090/95 old support/double bottom from early October
4,154.5 20-day moving average
Support
3,989.1 double bottom
Crude (CLZ26)
WTI made a new high on Friday (103.92) and then opened lower Monday. It traded down to a low of 100.33 retracing roughly half of Friday’s rally. The pullback has yet to reverse the broader technical structure, with key moving averages continuing to trend higher.
Momentum crossed back up on Friday but remains in overbought territory. Friday’s new price high was not confirmed by a corresponding momentum high, creating a bearish divergence that signals weakening upside momentum. The market was technically extended heading into the week, although fundamental supply risks remain a potential reason for momentum to stay elevated longer than usual.
Key Levels
Resistance
103.54 upper Bollinger Band
103.92 Friday’s high
Support
97.07 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (October 6 low to Friday’s high)
94.96 50% Fibonacci retracement
93.73 20-day moving average
BTC
BTC continued to trade in a tight range, with a low of 79,107 on Saturday. Volatility dropped again to a new 2-month low.
Momentum moved into oversold territory, and price is sitting on the lower Bollinger Band.
Key Levels
Resistance
81,970 20-day moving average
84,157 upper Bollinger Band
84,856 last week’s high
Support
79,851 lower Bollinger Band
79,107 Saturday’s low
75,597 100-day moving average
Week Ahead
The main focus this week will be the Fed on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. A hawkish tone from the Fed or the BoJ is the main risk for the dollar and the yen.
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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