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- The Week in FX and Crypto: October 20, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: October 20, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
October 20, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Dollar slips from near 18-month high, Fed hike odds fall
EUR/USD — New 17-month low, bullish divergence, recovers weekly losses
USD/JPY — Range bound, capped by the 200-day, volatility at 3-month low
Gold — Range bound, volatility at 3-month low
Crude — Six straight higher highs, closing above upper Bollinger Band
BTC — Tight 80k–84k range, two bullish reversal bars
Week Ahead — UK CPI Wednesday, flash PMIs and Japan CPI Friday, FOMC next week
FX Recap
The dollar slipped for the week from near its 18-month high.
September CPI came in above expectations Wednesday. Headline rose 0.6% and core rose 0.3% against 0.2% expected, with energy up 5.2%. The dollar and yields rose on the number but didn’t hold the gains.
The dollar fell into the end of the week. Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF meetings Friday and wouldn’t preview the October or December decisions, and traders cut the odds of an October hike to under 20%. The 10-year ended the week at 5.08%, down about 15 basis points, and the curve flattened.
EUR made a new 17-month low Tuesday at 1.1113, then rallied 1.4% and recovered all of its weekly losses. That ended five straight weekly declines.
WTI gained about 10% and settled at $101.41. Brent settled at $109.86. Stocks fell on an AI chip selloff, with the S&P 500 down about 2%. AUD lagged after a surprise drop in September jobs.
USD/JPY and gold both traded in tight ranges with volatility at 3-month lows.
EUR/USD
Made a new 17-month low last week at 1.1113 before recovering all of its losses for the week and finishing higher. The new low created a bullish divergence: a new price low with a higher momentum low. It was very oversold when the divergence lined up. Price rallied 1.4% two days later and stopped just short of the 20-day moving average, which it hasn’t closed above in over a month. Momentum is still pointing higher, but it has recovered to the neutral zone, which leaves no bias from the current level.
Key Levels
Resistance
1.1260, 20-day moving average
1.1270, Thursday’s high
1.1340/50, 38.2% Fibonacci (August high to last week’s low)
Support
1.1150, Wednesday’s low
1.1113, Tuesday’s low (lowest in 17 months)
1.1108, lower Bollinger Band
USD/JPY
Range-bound last week, trading mostly between the upper Bollinger band (158.94) and the 20-day moving average (158.05). Late in the week the 200-day (158.57) capped price on the topside. Momentum is elevated but just below overbought, and it is also moving sideways, which confirms the lack of directional bias.
Volatility is at a 3-month low as measured by Bollinger Band width.
Key Levels
Resistance
158.94, upper Bollinger Band
158.98, last week’s high
159.45, 100-day moving average
Support
158.05, 20-day moving average
157.71, 50-day moving average
157.17, lower Bollinger Band
Gold (GCZ6)
Also range-bound last week, closing Friday at 4,186.7, very close to Monday’s close of 4,195.9. It has traded between the 20-day moving average and the lower Bollinger band for more than two weeks, drifting lower, and hasn’t closed above the 20-day since early September.
Momentum is close to neutral and pointing sideways, with no directional bias. Volatility is at a 3-month low. A close above the 20-day moving average, or below last week’s low (4,095.0), might be what picks up momentum, expands volatility and gives the next move some traction.
Key Levels
Resistance
4,242.1, 20-day moving average
4,315.8, 100-day moving average
4,428.3, upper Bollinger Band
Support
4,095.0, last week’s low
4,091.2, October 7 low (multi-month low)
4,055.9, lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)
Has printed a higher high on each of the last six trading days, closing above the upper Bollinger band on Friday and again on Monday. The broader uptrend is still intact, with the key moving averages stacked: the 50-day (91.82) is above the 100-day (86.02), and the 100-day is above the 200-day (84.77).
Momentum has crude as very overbought and starting to look extended, although it hasn’t crossed down yet.
Key Levels
Resistance
106.75, September 15 high
Support
102.61, upper Bollinger Band
93.85, 20-day moving average
91.82, 50-day moving average
BTC
Traded in a tight range last week, between 80k and 84k. Price action was mostly contained between the 20-day moving average and the lower Bollinger band.
Volatility started to expand from multi-month lows last week. Stochastic momentum is near oversold and pointing higher, and two bullish reversal bars in the past week suggest an underlying upward bias.
Key Levels
Resistance
83,245, 20-day moving average
84,261, last week’s high
86,345, upper Bollinger Band
Support
80,564, Sunday’s bullish reversal bar low
80,142, lower Bollinger Band
79,676, Thursday’s low (and 4-week low)
Week Ahead
Quiet week for US data, with the Fed in blackout ahead of the October 28 FOMC. The inflation prints come from overseas.
UK CPI Wednesday is the main one. New Zealand CPI follows Thursday (NZ time). Friday brings flash PMIs from Australia, the UK, the Eurozone and the US, and Japan’s national CPI.
Oil above $100 and last week’s energy-driven US CPI are the backdrop for this week’s inflation prints.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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