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- The Week in FX and Crypto: October 13, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: October 13, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
October 13, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Dollar holds 18-month highs despite soft payrolls
EUR/USD — New lows not seen since May 2025, bullish divergence building
USD/JPY — Range breaks higher Monday, stalling below the 200-day
Gold — Sideways, momentum turning up from oversold
Crude — Key support holding, bullish engulfing Monday
BTC — Double bearish reversal, momentum crossed down
Week Ahead — CPI Wednesday, PPI and Retail Sales Thursday, FOMC two weeks away
FX Recap
Dollar held near 18-month highs for another week. No big moves, no capitulation — just the grind continuing.
10-year through 5%. That’s what’s keeping the dollar bid. Not the rate path, not the hike odds — just the yield. After last week’s payrolls miss October hike came off the table and the dollar barely moved. That tells you what’s driving this.
EUR was the weak spot — fifth consecutive weekly loss, falling to levels not seen since May 2025. Can’t find a floor.
Crude choppy — sold off early then caught a bid on Iranian tanker attacks near the Strait. 12 incidents in one week, highest since the war started. Gave some of it back into Friday.
USD/JPY pressed toward 158.50. The yield differential keeps the yen under pressure.
CPI Wednesday has the potential to move things. Strong number and the dollar continues. Weak number and we may finally see the bounce in EUR that the bullish divergence has been suggesting.
EUR/USD
Continued to weaken over the past week — making new lows Monday at 1.1154, levels not seen since May 2025. Momentum is still not confirming this move to new lows — creating a bullish divergence. Need to see a reversal in price to create confluence before expecting a bounce. Bounce risk is building but not there yet.
Key Levels
Resistance
1.1244 — Friday’s high
1.1277 — last week’s high
1.1320 — key pivot / old support
Support
1.1129 — 50% Fibonacci (January 2025 low to January 2026 high)
1.1066 — May 2025 low
1.0905 — 61.8% Fibonacci
USD/JPY
Stayed in a range for most of the past week — the 50-day moving average at 157.73 acting as support on multiple closing attempts and the 100-day acting as resistance, with price grinding between the two. Pressed to new two-week highs of 158.79 Monday, trading above the 100-day for the first time in two weeks.
Momentum has crossed up but is approaching overbought — can run into resistance if it looks to test the topside further.
Key Levels
Resistance
159.00 — double top (September 24/25)
159.52 — 200-day moving average
160.39 — September 2nd bearish reversal bar high
Support
158.65 — 100-day moving average (trading above as of Monday)
157.73 — 50-day moving average
157.44 — last week’s low
Gold (GCZ6)
Traded sideways closing Monday relatively unchanged from a week ago. Made a new seven-day high Monday before reversing and closing lower on the day. Momentum crossed up from oversold after making a new multi-week low last Wednesday and is still pointing higher — suggesting the upside can be tested in the near term.
Key Levels
Resistance
4,258.30 — 20-day moving average
4,325.60 — 100-day moving average
4,375.10 — 50-day moving average
Support
4,145.70 — double bottom from September
4,091.20 — Wednesday’s low
4,077.30 — lower Bollinger Band
Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)
Tested and held the key support at 88.50 after multiple attempts to break lower — testing the 50-day moving average which comes in today at 88.41 on five of the last six trading days, with three of those trading below but closing back above. Monday printed a bullish engulfing pattern.
Momentum has crossed up and moved out of oversold but hasn’t reached neutral territory yet.
Key Levels
Resistance
94.46 — 38.2% Fibonacci (September 15th high to last week’s low)
95.81 — 20-day moving average (trading close as of Monday)
96.81 — 50% Fibonacci
Support
89.61 — Monday’s bullish reversal bar low
88.53 — 50-day moving average
86.46 — 100-day moving average
BTC
Printed a bearish reversal bar last Monday after making a high of 86,978 while momentum was overbought — quickly sold off to a low of 80,365 before stabilizing. Monday printed another bearish reversal but momentum was in neutral territory, making it a less convincing setup. Momentum has crossed over to the downside.
Key Levels
Resistance
84,245 — Monday’s reversal bar high
86,978 — last Monday’s reversal bar high
87,354 — double top from September
Support
80,365 — Thursday’s low
74,977 — double bottom from September 15/16
72,050 — 200-day moving average
Week Ahead
CPI Wednesday. PPI and Retail Sales Thursday. Back to back inflation prints with consumer spending in between.
After last week’s soft payrolls, the market needs to know if inflation is following. Strong CPI keeps October hike alive. Soft print takes it off the table. PPI and Retail Sales on Thursday gives a fuller picture of where both inflation and the consumer stand.
Iran and crude still the wildcard. Bullish reversal Monday but nothing resolved on the Strait.
October FOMC is two weeks away.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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