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- The Week in FX and Crypto: November 25, 2025
The Week in FX and Crypto: November 25, 2025
Framework-Based Structure Analysis. Educational Only.
mark schaefer
November 25, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE:
USD Index: New highs, then reversal - pattern repeats
EUR/USD: Sold off within range, structure held
GBP/AUD: Bullish setup delivered 200+ pips
Bitcoin: When institutional flows turn
Week Ahead: Thanksgiving holiday
Subscriber Poll: Share your ideas for future issues!
Market Structure Update
USD Index (DXY) Last week flagged support at 98.10. Instead, price made new high at 100.35, then reversed—similar to beginning of month pattern (100.21 high, then reversal). Setup flagged in last week's YouTube video.
EUR/USD Last week watched for squeeze toward 50% Fib at 1.1692. Sold off instead but stayed within range. No new low.
GBP/AUD Last week flagged bullish divergence + engulfing Nov 13. Followed through, rallying 200 points higher from 2.0155 to 2.0366.
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
Bitcoin: When Institutional Flows Turn
Bitcoin fell sharply from its October high, erasing 2025 gains and breaking below $90,000 for the first time since April. The selloff wasn't driven by retail panic—it was institutional.
The flows tell the story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded billions in outflows during November, with November 18 marking the largest single-day withdrawal on record. BlackRock's IBIT alone shed over $2 billion.
Technical damage compounded the move. Key moving averages that had held for over two years broke down. On-chain data showed long-term holders distributing at the highest rate in over a year.
The broader context matters. Bitcoin's correlation to the Nasdaq surged as tech stocks sold off despite strong Nvidia earnings. The cryptocurrency followed equities lower, reinforcing its behavior as a risk asset rather than a hedge.
Key Point: ETF flows now drive structure more than spot demand. When institutional money reverses, price action reflects balance-sheet decisions, not sentiment. Oversold readings suggest exhaustion, but recovery depends on flows returning—not just technical bounce potential.
Week Ahead
Wishing readers celebrating a Happy Thanksgiving. Markets thin heading into the holiday, with US markets closed Thursday.
USD Index (DXY)
Bearish divergence on the new high (chart below). Pattern rejected on a close over last week's high—if that occurs, can signal more legs to USD strength.
Downside watch: 99.55 (20-day MA), then 98.65 (38.2% retracement of recent rally + lower Bollinger Band).
AUD/USD
Closed week with bullish reversal off lower Bollinger Band. Stochastic oversold and turning up. Looking for potential move back into range. Targets: 0.6515 first, then 0.6553 (50% Fib), then 0.6596 (61.8% Fib + upper Bollinger Band).
GBP/AUD
Near top of channel (2.0350/60) that's contained November price action. Approaching overbought. Support around 2.0000.
BTC
Oversold on weekly and daily. Daily momentum turned up. Watching Fibs for key levels—first response usually strongest: 98,010 (38.2%), 103,402 (50%), 108,794 (61.8%).
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