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- The Week in FX and Crypto: November 18, 2025
The Week in FX and Crypto: November 18, 2025
Framework-Based Structure Analysis. Educational Only.
mark schaefer
November 18, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE:
Structure shifts: USD breaks 20-day MA, EUR/GBP negates bearish setups
EUR/USD: Reached 1st Fib zone; watching reaction toward 50%
USD/JPY: Bearish confluence delivered 100 points
Context Over Patterns: Why timeframe and initial response matter
GBP/AUD: Bullish divergence + engulfing at week’s end
Week Ahead: Key levels across USD, EUR, and JPY
Subscriber Poll: Share your ideas for future issues
Market Structure Update
Structure shifted this week: USD broke its 8-week trend, EUR/GBP negated its bearish setups, and USD/JPY delivered cleanly off confluence
USD Index (DXY) Tuesday marked the first close below mid Bollinger Band (20-day MA) in 8 weeks. Momentum is neutral.
EUR/USD Retraced to 1st Fib zone (38.2%) with a high of 1.1656.
USD/JPY Initial bearish reversal setup negated when USD/JPY pushed to new highs. Then bearish confluence formed: bearish engulfing + 2 bearish reversal candles + trendline break (see YouTube video). Led to 100 point selloff.
EUR/GBP Sold off approximately 50+ points to low of 0.8768, then bounced and broke above resistance cluster at 0.8820/30.
GBP/AUD Closed week relatively unchanged at 2.0155.
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
Context Over Patterns: Why Timeframe and Initial Response Matter
Setups require context. The timeframe you're screening and the initial response determine how to interpret what happens next.
Timeframe sets expectations. A weekly pattern reflects structural positioning and takes time to develop. A 60-minute setup reflects intraday positioning—it can be irrelevant within a few hours.
Initial response matters most. When a setup triggers and produces a sharp move—this week’s USD/JPY delivered ~1% quickly—that immediate reaction reduces the original setup’s significance. It’s not an open pass to trade every retest. The first reaction typically gets the largest response.
Example: USD/JPY bearish confluence (engulfing + reversal candles + trendline break) delivered ~100 points almost immediately. That early response fulfilled much of the setup’s potential. Continued relevance depends on subsequent structure, not the presence of the original pattern.
The same idea applies to Fibonacci zones: first and second tests tend to matter the most. By the third or fourth retest, significance often fades.
Context outweighs pattern.
Week Ahead
USD Index (DXY)
Support: 98.10 (lower Bollinger Band +mid-October low close)
EUR/USD
Momentum suggests potential squeeze toward the 50% retracement at 1.1692, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band. 4-hour is overbought. Watching for alignment between Daily and 4-hour.
GBP/AUD
Bullish divergence printed at week’s end alongside a strong bullish engulfing candle on Nov 13.
GBP/AUD Daily
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