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The Week in FX and Crypto: November 11, 2025
Framework-Based Structure Analysis. Educational Only.
mark schaefer
November 11, 2025
IN THIS ISSUE:
Structure normalized across FX: USD eased, EUR/USD bounced, EUR/GBP confluence
EUR/USD: Updated Fibonacci retracements after new early-week low
EUR/GBP: Confluence with six bearish setups
Week Ahead: Key levels across USD, EUR crosses, GBP/AUD
Subscriber Poll: Please share your ideas for future issues!
Market Structure Update
Across FX, structure normalized: USD eased off highs, EUR/USD retraced, and EUR/GBP produced textbook confluence
USD Index (DXY)
Last week’s note highlighted USD pressing into extended territory with daily and weekly momentum stretched. That played out via a gradual easing of overbought readings and a rotation off the 100.00–100.30 area.
EUR/USD
Bounce from oversold, as flagged. Using Fibonacci retracements anchored to the mid-September high at 1.1919 for context on the rebound path.
USD/JPY
The Oct 30 4-hour bearish reversal pattern played out with the pair trading down to a low of 152.82 before stabilizing.
EUR/GBP
The bearish setup discussed last week stayed orderly. As noted on X during the week, we saw additional confluence build on retests of resistance; 0.8818 remains the reference level. Monitoring on a close basis for negation.
GBP/AUD
Last week’s letter flagged the pair as deeply oversold. We then saw a reflexive bounce ~300 points, consistent with that oversold context.
Note: These measure market reactions from flagged levels, not trading results. Implementation varies by individual approach.
EUR/GBP: Why Confluence Matters
What developed:
Initial four bearish signals:
Bearish divergence
Double top
Bollinger Band reversal
Bearish engulfing
After the resistance retest, two more formed:
A new bearish divergence
Bearish reversal candle
How to read it:
Each pattern can stand on its own, but when multiple setups align, the message becomes stronger. Confluence doesn’t guarantee direction—it tightens the framework by stacking independent evidence in the same direction.
EUR/USD — Updated Bounce Structure & New Fibonacci Levels
EUR/USD extended the oversold bounce noted last week, printing a new low early in the week before turning higher (as flagged on X). That reset the anchor, so the Fibonacci map is re-drawn to reflect the updated structure—inside a broader downtrend.
Anchor: mid-September high 1.1919 → new early-week low
Updated retracements (reference levels):
38.2%: 1.1639
50.0%: 1.1692
61.8%: 1.1746
Week Ahead
USD Index (DXY)
Key levels: 99.00 support; 20-day MA (no daily close below it in ~6 weeks).
What to watch: Hold vs. a daily close below the 20-day; behavior on any retest of 99.00.
EUR/USD
Focus: Reaction to updated Fibonacci retracements (re-anchored to the new early-week low).
Levels: 38.2% 1.1639 · 50% 1.1692 · 61.8% 1.1746.
USD/JPY
References: 152.54 (20-day MA); 150.20 (lower Bollinger Band).
EUR/GBP
Context: Multiple bearish setups remain in play; 0.8818 still the reference resistance.
Supports: 20-day MA 0.8741 first; lower Bollinger Band 0.8670 next.
GBP/AUD
Level of interest: Channel resistance 2.0480–2.0490.
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