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- The Week in FX and Crypto: May 26, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: May 26, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
May 26, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Iran deal whipsaws the dollar
EUR/USD — bullish reversal, Fibs in focus
USD/JPY — 159.35 high, BOJ on radar
GBP/USD — double bullish engulfing
AUD/USD — middle of the range, coin toss
BTC — Fibonacci resistance, bearish divergences intact
FX Recap
The dominant theme of the week was again the Iran peace deal. After holding near six-week highs early in the week on safe-haven demand and elevated oil, the dollar reversed as Trump announced the US was in the “final stages” of negotiations with Tehran. After announcing the deal had been “largely negotiated” the president walked it back Sunday saying he is not in a rush — keeping the market on edge waiting for clarity.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD printed a bullish reversal early last week with momentum oversold and beginning to turn higher. The market attempted another push lower but momentum faded. The structure remains intact heading into the new week as long as EUR holds 1.1590 on a closing basis.
If the structure continues to hold, the first upside objective is 1.1702. Beyond that, key resistance levels are:
• 1.1731 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
• 1.1760 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
USD/JPY
USD/JPY had a slow grind up to a high 159.35 but ran out of momentum, stochastics crossed over and turned down and are still in overbought territory.
Key levels to watch on the downside:
• 157.70 38.2% Fib
• 157.19 50% Fib
• 156.67 61.8% Fib
My reversal model remains sidelined on USD/JPY longs for now.
GBP
Bullish engulfing daily candle on the 18th and again on the 20th. Bounced 200 pips off the low on the 18th and is starting the week right on the 20-day MA. Confluence in this area 1.3515/20 — the 20-day MA and the 61.8% Fib of the May high to the May low. Watch for a potential pullback. 1.3430 is the first fib of the move off the low and will be key zone if the move higher continues.
AUD
Right in the middle of the range since mid-April. Sitting right on the 20-day MA at 0.7186 with momentum neutral. The next 1% move from here is a coin toss.
BTC
The major bearish confluence zone between 81k–83k is still holding as was flagged in the Meridian Compass feed. Momentum is now in oversold territory and could stabilize here and attempt another move back toward the resistance zone above 81k.. The ranges are becoming smaller as we head into the summer.
Week Ahead
The broader FX backdrop remains heavily tied to developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, with markets continuing to swing between escalation fear and optimism surrounding a potential agreement. USD/JPY and the BOJ continue to be on traders' radar as the pair bounces back after every sell-off. BOJ intervention risk hasn’t gone away. At the same time, FX price action has become increasingly two-way despite elevated oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tension — suggesting much of the positioning tied to the conflict has already adjusted.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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