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- The Week in FX and Crypto: March 31, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: March 31, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
March 31, 2026
In This Issue
Iran — whipsaw week, war premium fully back
Crude back above $100 — April 6 deadline now the key date
BTC still below 74,500 — setup unchanged
EUR/USD — USD regaining ground, 200-day MA still the level
USD/JPY approaching 160 again
Week Ahead: April 6 deadline, positioning, key levels
Iran
A whipsaw week driven almost entirely by Iran headlines.
When Trump announced "productive conversations" with Iran toward a complete resolution we saw oil drop 15%, stocks rallied, the war trade unwound fast.
The following day (Tuesday) Iran had denied any talks took place. By Thursday Iran formally rejected the US 15-point peace plan. Oil surged back 5%, Brent pushed above $107, WTI back to $94-95. Thursday was the S&P's worst single day since the war began. Nasdaq down 2.4% — now in correction territory.
Trump extended the deadline to April 6. Talks continuing through Pakistan as mediator.
My read: we cleaned out some of the weaker hands last week. The long crude, long USD trade got shaken — some of that positioning came off. That’s important for positioning. With the weaker hands out, the market will be a little less sensitive to headlines from here. The moves on bad news will still be significant but you won't see the same knee-jerk magnitude on every rumor.
The war premium is fully back. April 6 is the next hard date to watch.
Key Levels This Week
BTC
74,500 — key pivot / Fibonacci level
57,797 — 61.8% Fib (Nov 2022 low → ATH)
48,698 — 61.8% Fib of the entire BTC move
EUR/USD
Resistance
1.1678 — 200-day moving average (key — watching on a closing basis)
1.1674 — 38.2% Fib (Jan high → March low)
Pullback Support
1.1553 — 38.2% Fib
1.1525 — 50%
1.1498 — 61.8% Fib
Support
1.1340 — 38.2% Fib (Feb 2025 low → Jan 2026 high)
USD/JPY
160.00 — still key level to watch/ BOJ intervention zone
157.51 — pivot on the downside
Crude Oil (CLK6 – May)
113.41 — March 9th high
101.67 — top of current range (broke above yesterday)
85.00 — bottom of multi-week range
Closing basis matters more than intraday breaks given current volatility.
BTC
Slow moving but the bias remains lower.
Still below 74,500. No clean close above the key pivot. The setup hasn't changed — it's just taking its time.
While below 74,500 the door stays open for 57,797 — the 61.8% Fib of the November 2022 low to the ATH. Under there 48,698 — the 61.8% Fib of the entire BTC move. That's the bigger level.
Need a clean close and hold above 74,500 to change the picture. Hasn't happened.
Crude Oil
Aside from the spike at the start of the month crude had been grinding in a wide range — roughly 85 to 101. That range broke Monday March 30th as CLK6 pushed above resistance on fresh headlines.
The dynamic remains the same — mixed messages, back channel negotiations through Pakistan, US talking about boots on the ground. But the market proved this week it will still respond aggressively to headlines — that dynamic shouldn’t be ignored.
Iran likely benefits from higher oil prices — it increases pressure on the U.S. and improves their negotiating leverage. With the range now broken to the upside the next test is whether this move holds or whether it's another headline-driven spike that fades.
My read: the bigger risk remains a sudden agreement. If a deal comes together the war trade unwinds fast and the move lower in crude could be significant. April 6 is the next hard date either way.
USD/JPY
Pushed through 160 Friday afternoon.
The BOJ appears to be more flexible on JPY weakness given the current geopolitical dynamics — intervening against a war-driven USD move is a different calculation than intervening against pure speculation. Hard to see them stepping in aggressively while the conflict drives the narrative.
But 160 is not a level they can ignore indefinitely. Watch for verbal warnings to pick up.
Week Ahead
It all comes down to one question — how close are we to a ceasefire.
Every market this week traded through that lens. Crude, USD, JPY, BTC — all of it. That's not changing until the Iran situation resolves one way or another.
April 6 is the next hard date. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait or face destruction of energy infrastructure. Between now and then every headline out of Tehran, Washington, or Islamabad moves markets.
The setup is asymmetric. A breakdown in talks — escalation — and the war trade comes back hard. Crude has already broken above the top of the recent range at 101.67. Next level is the March 9th high at 113.41. USD bid, JPY offered.
But the bigger risk is the other direction. A sudden agreement catches the market long crude and long USD. That unwind would be fast and significant. Cleaner positioning after last week's shakeout means the move could be larger than people expect.
Watch the headlines. Watch crude. Everything else follows.
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