- Meridian Compass
- Posts
- The Week in FX and Crypto: March 3, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: March 3, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
March 03, 2026
In This Issue
Iran strikes over weekend — USD outperforming traditional safe havens
Cross-asset analysis: Why USD/JPY and USD/CHF moves signal oil premium over pure risk-off
EUR/USD clean break of 200-day MA at 1.1668
Week Ahead: Key levels in sustained conflict environment
Weekend Developments — Iran Strikes
Not a dull weekend.
Markets gapped on the open following the Iran strikes, but the price action is telling us something important about how markets are interpreting this conflict.
USD is strong — but not for the reasons most people think.
CROSS-ASSET ANALYSIS
USD Strength: Not Just Safe Haven
USD is strong, but it's getting a dual bid — both safe haven flows AND oil premium.
Three key cross-asset signals:
USD/JPY traded up 1 % from Friday's close
In traditional risk-off, JPY dominates as primary safe haven. USD/JPY should fall. Instead, it's up with not so much as a knee-jerk move lower.
USD bid from oil concerns is overriding traditional safe-haven flows.
USD/CHF up over 2.5% from Friday’s close
CHF is historically the safe haven in times of geopolitical tensions. USD/CHF should fall in pure risk-off. Instead, CHF is getting overpowered by USD strength.
What this tells us:
With the USD outperforming both JPY and CHF, markets are pricing oil supply risk and inflation concerns over a generic flight to safety.
In pure safe haven, JPY and CHF lead. When USD leads all three, markets are pricing structural concerns over temporary fear.
Week Ahead
Watch to see if USD stays correlated with oil.
If the correlation comes off and the usual risk aversion plays start to surface, we'll see USD/JPY and USD/CHF get sold off.
EUR and GBP are taking out key support zones driven by USD strength not cross JPY selling.
AUD lagging on the down move is another tell supporting what we're seeing. AUD and NZD should get sold off more if this is pure risk-off.
Normally the initial reaction after a spike in geopolitical tensions is the biggest, but the narrative can shift quickly — from USD/oil to pure risk aversion. Signs of this shift will show up in a meaningful pull back in USD against the JPY and CHF.
EUR/USD: 1.1668 (200-day MA)
Previous breaks (and closes beyond) the 200 day moving average led to multi percent moves over the following months.
USD/JPY
Hard to see the BOJ stepping in now with USD up on oil concerns. But it's not the safest long USD trade given how quickly the narrative can shift.
BTC: Structure remains weak. Still hasn't tested 74,500. If risk-off accelerates, watch for retest of 60K.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER