In This Issue 

• Iran conflict escalation driving oil volatility
• BTC key Fibonacci 74,500
• EUR/USD trading below the 200-day moving average
• USD/JPY intervention risk above 160.00
• Oil supply risks tied to Strait of Hormuz disruption

Key Levels This Week

BTC

• 74,500 — key pivot /Fibonacci level
• 65,632 — recent swing low
• 57,888 — 61.8% Fibonacci support (Nov 2022 low → ATH)

EUR/USD

Resistance
- 1.1677 — 200-day moving average
- 1.1674 — 38.2% Fib (Jan high → March low)
Support
- 1.1340 — 38.2% Fib (Feb 2025 low → Jan 2026 high)

USD/JPY

• 159.45 — prior 2026 high / pivot
• 160.00 — intervention risk zone

Support
• 156.89 — 38.2% Fib
• 156.01 — 50%
• 155.13 — 61.8%

Crude Oil (CLK6 – May)

• $100 — psychological level and key sentiment driver

Support
• 91.16
• 84.29
• 77.42

Market Overview — Macro Drivers

Markets this week were dominated by developments surrounding the Iran conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route responsible for roughly 20% of global oil supply.

Oil briefly traded above $100 before pulling back as traders weighed the potential for strategic petroleum reserve releases and possible diplomatic developments.

For now, markets are trading the energy supply story first.

USD strength has increasingly tracked energy market dynamics rather than traditional safe-haven flows.

My read: as long as oil volatility remains elevated, the dollar is likely to continue trading through the lens of energy supply risk rather than broader macro sentiment.

Chart of the Week

BTC — Rejection at the 38.2% Retracement

The rally from 60K stalled near 74K, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the 97,922 → 60,000 decline.

In strong directional markets, the 38.2% level often represents the deepest pullback before trend continuation.

Price briefly traded 74,000 before pulling back roughly 8K, reinforcing 74,500 as the key pivot for the next directional move.

As long as BTC remains below 74,500, the current structure suggests the possibility of another leg lower toward the 57–58K support zone.

A sustained break and close above 74,500 would invalidate that setup and shift focus toward the key Fibonacci resistance at 85k region.

Week Ahead

Markets will likely remain sensitive to:

• developments in the Iran conflict
• shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz
• oil price volatility

As long as energy markets remain the dominant macro driver, FX and crypto will continue to trade through that lens.

Market Notes

Beyond the Weekly Note

The Private Meridian Compass Intelligence feed delivers real-time context as key levels are tested, momentum shifts, and structure develops during the trading day.

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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark

Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, trading recommendations, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All content represents the author's personal opinions and experiences and should not be construed as professional financial advice.

Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All trading examples and performance figures are for illustrative purposes only and may not reflect typical results.

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