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- The Week in FX and Crypto: March 10, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: March 10, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
March 10, 2026
In This Issue
Iran conflict escalation — Crude spikes above $100, Strait of Hormuz traffic halted
BTC rejected 74,064 exactly as mapped — down 9K, watching 57,888 next
EUR/USD broke cleanly through 200-day MA hitting low of 1.1507
USD/JPY approaching 2026 highs at 159.45 — BOJ staying quiet
Gold & Silver initial spike, now consolidating
Market Overview — Iran Conflict Driving Markets
The conflict in Iran continues to escalate with no signs of slowing. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut to traffic, creating immediate supply concerns.
Crude spiked above $100 this yesterday before pulling back on expectations of a G7 strategic petroleum release and Trump suggesting the war is near an end. This will help offset some pressure but won't solve the underlying supply issue.
Markets are trading the oil story — USD strength remains tied to oil demand, not traditional safe-haven flows.
Last Week's Key Moves
BTC:
BTC traded up to 74,064 — the exact 38.2% Fibonacci level I've been mapping for weeks.
The rejection played out exactly as expected. BTC has since traded down 9K to 65,632.
The pattern continues to mirror what happened before the 37K drop from 97k. Same consolidation structure, same rejection at resistance, same momentum behavior.
As long as BTC stays below 74,500, the door remains open for new lows. Next key levels: 57,888 (61.8% Fib) and then below 50K.
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD broke cleanly through the 200-day moving average at 1.1668.
After a brief bounce back to retest the level (as expected from the last three clean breaks of the 200-day), EUR has since traded down to 1.1507.
The 200-day MA is now resistance. Watching for continuation lower or another retest of the breakout level.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY traded up to within 0.5% of the 2026 high at 159.45.
The BOJ has been notably quiet. This move is all about USD strength from oil demand — not about JPY weakness.
Intervention risk remains, but the BOJ seems comfortable letting the market do the work as long as the move is driven by external factors (oil) rather than yen-specific weakness.
Crude Oil:
Crude spiked above $100 yesterday as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut to traffic.
Price has pulled back from the highs as markets expect a G7 strategic petroleum release. This will provide some relief but won't offset the structural supply concerns if the conflict continues.
Watching to see if where crude pulls back to on recent Trump statements (the war is “very complete, pretty much”) or if the strategic release creates a deeper pullback.
Silver & Gold:
Both metals had the same reaction to the conflict escalation: initial spike higher, followed by consolidation.
Silver trading between $80-85.
Gold trading between $5,000-5,200.
Neither is showing the sustained safe-haven bid you'd expect in a pure risk-off environment — another signal that markets are pricing oil supply concerns over traditional flight-to-safety.
Week Ahead
BTC:
Watching 65,632 (recent low) level and 57,888 (61.8% Fib) below.
As long as BTC stays below 74,500, the pattern suggests continuation lower. A sustained break and close above 74,500 invalidates the setup.
EUR/USD:
Below the 200-day MA at 1.1668. Watching for continuation lower or another retest of the breakout level.
The last three times EUR broke the 200-day cleanly, it led to substantial moves. This could be the start of another one.
USD/JPY:
Approaching 2026 highs at 159.45. BOJ quiet for now, but intervention risk always present above 160.
As long as the move is driven by oil/USD strength, the BOJ seems willing to let it run.
Crude:
Watching for G7 strategic release impact, but this won't solve the underlying problem. The release will provide temporary relief but can't offset the loss of Strait of Hormuz traffic.
There's also been talk of governments providing escorts to tankers, but no concrete action yet. Until the strait reopens or escorts become operational, the structural supply bid remains.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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