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- The Week in FX and Crypto: June 30, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: June 30, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
June 30, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — USD strength turns more two-way, Iran still driving headlines
EUR/USD — oversold bounce building off the lows
USD/JPY — BOJ pressure building near the highs
Gold — stabilizing after a structural breakdown
Crude — risk premium unwinding
BTC — low volatility, weak bounce
Week Ahead — shortened week, lower liquidity, Iran still the wildcard
FX Recap
The dollar stayed firm last week, though price action became increasingly two-way as markets balanced Fed expectations against shifting geopolitical headlines. Warsh’s first FOMC reinforced the view that the Fed remains in no rush to ease, helping to keep the dollar supported. At the same time, much of the move now feels increasingly priced in, with several USD pairs reaching stretched technical levels.
Iran remained the key macro driver. A breakdown in diplomatic talks in Switzerland late last week briefly reignited risk-off flows and pushed crude higher, but weekend diplomacy helped calm markets and removed some of that immediate panic premium. The result was another round of whipsaw price action across FX, with traders forced to react to headlines rather than clean macro themes.
USD/JPY remained the clearest expression of broad dollar strength, grinding to fresh highs as the market continues testing Japan’s tolerance for intervention. EUR stayed under pressure as USD strength persisted, while commodity currencies remained heavy as traders weighed weaker global growth against ongoing geopolitical risk. Overall, the market still favors the dollar — but positioning is becoming crowded and the risk of sharper countertrend moves is increasing.
EUR/USD
Last week I highlighted the 1.1340 area as an important technical zone — the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader move from the February 2025 low at 1.0141 to the January 2026 multi-year high at 1.2081. That level held, and EUR/USD has since stabilized, trading 1.1428 as of Monday afternoon.
Momentum remains deeply oversold but has started to turn higher. Since putting in the new YTD low at 1.1325, EUR/USD has printed a higher low each day and is now attempting to build a short-term base. A third consecutive higher close would further support the idea that a near-term low may be in place.
The first key upside level is 1.1505 — the 20-day moving average. Beyond that, 1.1525 is the next important level, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the April high to the recent low. If momentum continues to improve, that would be the natural next target for this recovery.
Resistance
1.1505 — 20-day moving average
1.1525 — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (April high to June low)
1.1587 — 50% Fibonacci retracement
Support
1.1325/30 — new YTD low and lower Bollinger Band. This remains the key structural downside pivot. A break and close below here would suggest the recent stabilization has failed and reopen the broader downside trend.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to coil higher, with the daily range getting progressively smaller as price grinds along the upper Bollinger Band — a classic sign of trend persistence, but also rising tension. Monday briefly broke above the July 3, 2024 high at 161.95 by a few pips, marking a fresh cycle high.
What makes this move more interesting is the growing bearish divergence. While price pushed to a new high, momentum failed to confirm. That divergence alone is not enough to call a top, especially with momentum still pointing higher, but it does suggest upside momentum is becoming less efficient.
So far, there has been no sign of direct intervention from the Bank of Japan, though officials are clearly watching. Traders will remember that the last time USD/JPY reached these levels in 2024, the pair reversed sharply — falling more than 12% after peaking at 161.95.
For now, the trend remains intact. The 200-day moving average at 156.61 remains the key structural support. USD/JPY has not closed below it since October 2025, which continues to define the broader trend. Until that changes, dips remain corrective — but the higher this market climbs with narrowing ranges and weaker momentum, the more violent the eventual unwind could be.
Gold
Gold printed another bullish divergence at last Wednesday’s low of 3959.33, with momentum having turned higher since. Price action has begun to compress, with each daily range since that low holding inside the broader move lower. Friday also printed an inside day relative to Thursday — often an early sign that selling pressure is beginning to stabilize after an aggressive directional decline.
That said, the bigger technical development happened on the weekly chart.
Last week marked an important structural break, as Gold closed below the final major Fibonacci retracement (61.8%) of the move from the July 2025 low into the January high. It was the first weekly close below that level since the January top was established six months ago — a meaningful shift in longer-term market structure.
Near term, Gold appears stretched and vulnerable to a bounce, especially with momentum diverging positively. But unless the market can reclaim higher resistance levels, the broader technical damage remains intact.
Resistance
4202.59 — 20-day moving average
4477.21 — 200-day moving average / upper Bollinger Band confluence
Support
3959.33 — last week’s low
3927.98 — lower Bollinger Band
Crude
Crude oil (continuous contract) broke cleanly below the 200-day moving average at 74.22 last week, marking an important shift as much of the geopolitical risk premium tied to the Iran conflict continues to unwind.
Momentum is now at extreme oversold levels, but there are still no clear signs of stabilization or reversal. That leaves the market vulnerable to short-covering bounces, though any upside recovery is likely to remain limited unless there is a meaningful re-escalation in the conflict — something neither side appears eager to pursue at this stage.
Technically, part of the original war gap has already been filled, but the full gap closure sits at 67.83, which remains the next major downside target. Below that, the lower Bollinger Band comes in at 63.22.
For now, 74.22 becomes the key pivot to watch on a closing basis. As long as crude remains below that level, the path of least resistance remains lower.
BTC
Bitcoin printed a new low last week, and with it a bullish divergence in momentum — the first sign that downside pressure may be starting to lose some force. That said, there have been no meaningful follow-through signals yet to suggest a sustained bounce is underway.
Volatility expanded sharply on last week’s breakdown, but since putting in the low, BTC has largely traded sideways. That type of price action often reflects stabilization, but for now the market remains heavy and vulnerable unless buyers can reclaim near-term resistance.
The first key upside level to watch is 62,626 — the 20-day moving average. A move back above there would be the first indication that momentum is starting to shift.
On the downside, 58,000 remains the key level to watch. Last week’s lows sit just above that area, with the lower Bollinger Band coming in just ahead of it. A break below there would suggest the current consolidation is failing and likely open the door for another leg lower.
Week Ahead
It’s a shortened holiday week in the U.S. heading into the July 4th weekend, which should naturally reduce liquidity and likely keep volatility more contained across FX, commodities, and crypto.
With positioning already stretched in several markets, that could limit follow-through unless a fresh catalyst emerges. The main focus remains developments out of Iran, where another surprise headline could quickly reprice crude and broader risk sentiment.
Barring that, expect a quieter week with more range-bound trade, thinner conditions, and a higher sensitivity to unexpected headlines.
Have a great weekend.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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