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- The Week in FX and Crypto: June 23, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: June 23, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
June 23, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — hawkish Fed, Iran deal, 60 days of headline risk
EUR/USD — new lows after FOMC, bullish reversal to end the week
USD/JPY — new high for the year, bearish divergence, BOJ watching
Gold — fails again at the 20-day, headwinds building
Crude — risk premium unwinding, oversold but more downside likely
BTC — low volatility, unimpressive bounce, new lows ahead?
Week Ahead — PCE Thursday, Iran fragile, USD/JPY at the boiling point
FX Recap
Two big stories this week. Both still unresolved.
Last Wednesday was Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair. Rates held as expected — but the tone was hawkish. The statement was stripped down, forward guidance gone, and the projections underneath signaled the next move is more likely a hike than a cut. Stocks sold off, short-term rates jumped, dollar got a bid.
Then Iran took over the rest of the week.
The Friday signing in Switzerland didn't happen. Swiss Foreign Ministry confirmed the talks wouldn't proceed, Vance pulled out, crude spiked. Then over the weekend talks resumed — a 60-day roadmap was agreed via Qatari and Pakistani mediators and crude came back off.
But it's not clean. Israel continued strikes in Lebanon and says it's not bound by the US-Iran agreement. Iran threatened to close the Strait again over it. The framework is still a framework — not a done deal.
My read: the market wanted a clean signing on Friday. Didn't get it. The 60-day roadmap buys time but it also means 60 more days of headline risk. Every Israeli airstrike in Lebanon is a potential deal breaker. Crude and the dollar aren't going anywhere in a straight line until this is actually resolved.
EUR/USD
Got hit hard after the FOMC — trading down to 1.1418, just shy of the 2026 low at 1.1411. A 1.7% move in a week that started with the market already cautious.
Ended the week with a bullish reversal. New low, higher close, and a close back inside the Bollinger Bands after closing below the day before. Momentum oversold.
EURUSD pressure resumed to start the week and by Tuesday morning took out the low for the year at 1.1411.
Resistance
1.1500 — previous pivot (two lows, broke, bounced back to retest)
1.1570/80 — confluence zone (38.2% Fibonacci and 20-day moving average)
Support
1.1411 — 2026 low
USD/JPY
Continues the slow grind higher — printing 161.93, a new high for the year and just two pips shy of the July 2024 peak. Within one month of making that high in the summer of 2024, USD/JPY traded down 12.5%.
This time the new high comes with bearish divergence. Momentum is significantly lower than where it was on the earlier June high — overbought and pointing lower while price keeps pushing up.
How much will the BOJ let it go?
Resistance
161.95 — July 2024 high
Support
160.30 — 20-day moving average (no close below since May 13th)
159.17 — 50-day moving average
158.92 — lower Bollinger Band
Gold
Failed again at the 20-day moving average last week. With Iran de-escalating and the Fed tilting hawkish, the headwinds aren't going away. This latest failure extends the streak — Gold hasn't closed above the 20-day in over a month.
The bullish divergence from the June 11th low is still technically in play — but only as long as price holds above 4,024. A close below that and the setup is gone.
Resistance
4,337 — 20-day moving average
4,466 — 200-day moving average
Support
4,062 — lower Bollinger Band
4,024 — June 11th reversal low
Crude (CLQ6)
Continues to trade under pressure as geopolitical concerns around Iran ease. Weekend headlines briefly spiked crude on renewed threats of Strait closure — but those gains unwound fast to start the US session Monday. Risk premium coming off.
Momentum is deeply oversold but technicals take a back seat when headlines are driving. Expect continued headwinds with the occasional short-term bounce as the market gets stretched to the downside.
Resistance
80.00 — previous pivot
83.00/84.00 — former support (May 6, 28 and June 9/11 lows — accelerated lower after breaking)
85.30 — 20-day moving average
Support
73.74 — lower Bollinger Band
72.48 — 61.8% Fibonacci (December low to May high)
69.92 — 200-day moving average
BTC
Volatility has dropped to its lowest level since mid-May. The bounce off the low has not been impressive.
If BTC is true to form, it struggles to get to the 38.2% Fibonacci at 68,156 and then rolls over to make new lows.
Resistance
66,248 — upper Bollinger Band
68,156 — 38.2% Fibonacci (May 6th high to June 5th low)
70,954 — 50% Fibonacci
71,878 — 50-day moving average
Support
60,729 — lower Bollinger Band
59,101 — June 5th low
Week Ahead
Quieter on the data front but the two big stories from last week aren't going anywhere.
Iran remains the main driver. The deal framework is in place but it's fragile — Israel isn't bound by the agreement and continued strikes in Lebanon are the wildcard. Any escalation and crude spikes, dollar gets a bid. Any further de-escalation and the pressure on crude continues.
Thursday is the key data point — May PCE. With the Fed already leaning hawkish, a hot number reinforces the dollar.
USD/JPY at 161.93 with bearish divergence. Japanese officials already talking tough. That situation doesn't resolve quietly.
Watch the headlines.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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