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- The Week in FX and Crypto: June 16, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: June 16, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
June 16, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — payrolls follow-through, Iran deal confirmed, war trade unwinds
EUR/USD — round trip back to square one, bias gone
USD/JPY — BOJ still the key
Gold — bullish reversal off the lows, momentum turning
Crude — breaks two-month support, 50% Fib in play
BTC — bounce off June lows, sitting right at the 20dma
Week Ahead — FOMC Wednesday, Iran signing Friday, five days to move
FX Recap
The first half of the week was straightforward — continued bullish USD sentiment on the back of the stronger payrolls number. The Dollar Index rallied over 1% to a new 10-week high in the days after the release. USD/JPY continued its slow grind higher, printing 160.60 with no sign of the BOJ.
Then Thursday everything reversed. Trump announced a peace deal with Iran was close — framework agreed, signing imminent. The war trade unwound fast. USD and crude both sold off hard. The Dollar Index printed a large bearish engulfing candle but really only gave back the post-payroll gains — around 1%. Crude stayed within the wider range it's been trading since the start of the conflict.
My read: the lack of clarity on the details kept the market from going further. Both sides are already describing the terms differently. Hard to aggressively unwind a trade when you're not sure what you're unwinding into.
Sunday night Trump confirmed the deal. Strait reopens Friday, US naval blockade lifted. Crude and the dollar sold off further on the open — but again, no signs of a massive move. The market is treating this as a deal in progress, not a done deal. Until the ink is dry in Switzerland on Friday, that's probably the right call.
EUR/USD
Closing price the day before payrolls — June 4th — was 1.1608. Eleven days and 2.3% of movement later, we're back at 1.1608. Right back where we started. That round trip has taken momentum out of oversold and removed the directional bias.
The rally stalled just shy of the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1635. EUR hasn't closed above the 20-day moving average since mid-April — that comes in at 1.1600 and will be important on a closing basis.
If EUR continues higher, there's significant confluence at 1.1670/80 — 50% Fibonacci, upper Bollinger Band, 50-day and 200-day moving averages all in the same area. Strong resistance if we get there.
Support at 1.1540/50 with the 61.8% Fibonacci in that zone, then 1.1500 — last week's low.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues its slow grind higher. Dropped 100 pips on the initial Iran deal headlines June 11th — and has rallied almost all of it back. Sitting just 30 pips below where it was before the news. The move did take momentum out of overbought and it's still pointing lower — yet the pair keeps pressing higher.
The key level topside is 160.72 — the high before the BOJ responded in April and sent USD/JPY down over 3%. Beyond that the upper Bollinger Band at 160.77. If the BOJ is true to form, watch for weak shorts to get squeezed above 160.72 before they respond.
Not one for fading intervention — but here are the levels to watch on the downside. 159.70 — the 20-day moving average, no close below since mid-May. 158.99 — 50-day moving average. 155.03 — last BOJ intervention low.
Gold
Bullish reversal off Thursday's low. New low, higher close, and a close back inside the Bollinger Bands — all on deeply oversold momentum that has crossed over and is now pointing higher. Clean confluence.
Setup points to a move higher as momentum works out of oversold territory.
Key level to watch is the 20-day moving average — Gold hasn't closed above it since early May and only briefly traded above it on June 1st. Beyond that, the 200-day moving average at 4,450.70. Longer-term players will be watching that on a closing basis — it's acted as a strong pivot on previous tests.
On the downside, 4,144.10 is the lower Bollinger Band, then 4,024.01.
Crude (CLN6)
Crude broke key support at 86.00 on the Iran deal announcement June 11th — a level that had held for two months. The decline took it directly to the 50% Fibonacci of the move from the December 2025 low to the May 18th high. Price is also testing the lower end of the range established since the war began.
Momentum is still pointing lower.
On a bounce, watch 86.00 — previous support now resistance — then 89.44, the 38.2% Fibonacci of the move from the May high to Monday's low.
On the downside, the next major level is 74.35 — the 61.8% Fibonacci — then 71.03, the 200-day moving average.
A lot depends on Friday. Clean signing and crude stays offered. Any hesitation and 86.00 gets tested fast.
BTC
BTC has bounced 7,000 points off the June 5th low from deeply oversold territory and is now sitting right on the 20-day moving average at 66,265. Hasn't closed above it — or even traded above it — since May 15th. Key short-term pivot on a closing basis.
The 7,000 point move has taken momentum to neutral, still pointing higher.
On continuation, 70,954 is the 50% Fibonacci. Beyond that, major confluence — 50-day moving average, 61.8% Fibonacci, and the upper Bollinger Band all coming together in the same area. That's the zone that matters if this bounce has legs.
If BTC rolls over from here, 59,101 — the June 5th low — is the pivot. Below that, 57,155 is the lower Bollinger Band and should find support if tested.
Week Ahead
A lot can happen in five days.
Wednesday is the FOMC — Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair. Rate decision is a non-event. What matters is what he says and how he says it. Any hawkish tone and the dollar gets a bid.
The main event is Friday. Iran signing in Switzerland. The war trade has partially unwound but the market hasn't fully committed — both sides are still describing the terms differently. A clean signing and crude goes lower, dollar stays offered. Any hesitation and some of that unwind comes back fast.
USD/JPY still sitting just below 160.72. BOJ hasn't gone away.
Five days. Stay nimble.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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