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- The Week in FX and Crypto: July 28, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: July 28, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
July 28, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Iran drives another week, crude spikes then reverses
EUR/USD — Volatility at historic lows, watch for the breakout
USD/JPY — New multi-decade high, BOJ guessing game continues
Gold — Directionless, volatility compressing, waiting for a catalyst
Crude — $13 rally then full round trip, back below where it started
BTC — Rejected 400 short of the level, off 3,000 since
Week Ahead — FOMC Wednesday, BOJ Friday, Iran the wildcard
FX Recap
Another week where Iran drove the bus — but with a twist at the end.
US strikes on Iranian targets continued through the week — a ninth round — with Iran retaliating against US allies across the Gulf. Crude (CL1) traded up to 93.50 and closed above the 100-day moving average for the first time in over six weeks. The Strait remained heavily restricted and the dollar held its safe-haven bid. The geopolitical risk premium was fully back in play.
Then the weekend delivered a pause. US and Iran halted strikes, with Oman stepping in as mediator. Crude sold off hard on the news. This morning crude continued lower to a low of 79.80. Nothing resolved — but the risk premium is coming off.
The dollar entered the week with better momentum and held it. DXY stayed range bound but firm. EUR/USD trading near the bottom of the range as of Tuesday morning but still above the key 1.1340 support.
My read: Iran has been doing the Fed's work for them all week. Crude near $90 kept inflation fears alive and the dollar bid. Now with crude pulling back and a pause in the fighting, the question is whether Wednesday's FOMC changes the picture — or whether Iran does first.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD traded in a relatively tight range this week — sitting within 25 pips of where it closed on June 20th. Volatility has become extremely compressed, and when measured by Bollinger Band width, the last time it was this tight was May 2019. When volatility expanded shortly after that, EUR/USD rallied 300 pips.
It's come close to these levels twice since — December 2021 and January 2026. In 2021 when volatility expanded, EUR/USD was 8% lower five months later. In January 2026 when it expanded, EUR/USD rallied from 1.1600 to the year's high at 1.2081 — a 4% move in the same month.
Not making a directional call here — but this is a setup worth watching closely. Momentum is oversold — not enough on its own, but if a bullish reversal or setup develops from here, that confluence with the compressed volatility is something to watch closely.
Resistance
1.1493 — 50-day moving average
1.1571 — 100-day moving average
1.1634 — 200-day moving average
Support
1.1340 — key Fibonacci level flagged for the past two months (watch on closing basis)
USD/JPY
Another multi-decade high — 163.99 — with price pulling back only to 163.33 as of Monday. No sign of the BOJ. At this point it's a guessing game on what level triggers a response and whether it comes as verbal intervention or actual JPY buying.
165.00 has been cited as a potential level where we hear from them — but there are no guarantees. The only certainty is that any significant downside move will likely be central bank driven and fast.
Hard to get involved here with intervention risk and price at 40-year highs.
Resistance
163.99 — last week's high
165.00 — speculated BOJ trigger level
Support
161.17 — 50-day moving average
159.97 — 100-day moving average
157.79 — 200-day moving average
Gold
Trading in a tight range with volatility compressing — similar to the picture in EUR/USD. Momentum is offering no directional bias, with stochastics sitting right at neutral and pointing sideways.
The market is waiting for a catalyst.
Resistance
4,181.10 — upper Bollinger Band
4,221.75 — 50-day moving average
4,470/90 — 100/200-day moving averages
Support
3,961 — lower Bollinger Band
3,943 — YTD low (June 30th)
Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)
Round trip. Crude rallied over $13 off Friday's low at 80.27 to 93.50 on the escalation, then gave all of it back and more as the US and Iran paused strikes — trading to a low of 79.80 this morning, below where the rally started.
The 50-day at 83.63 has flipped to resistance. Price is now testing the 50% retracement at 80.27, which broke intraday but only by cents. That close is what matters. Hold it and this is a normal — if violent — retracement of a headline-driven spike. Lose it on a closing basis and 77.15 comes into play, with the 200-day at 75.69 behind it.
Momentum is still overbought but now crossed over and pointing lower.
Nothing is actually resolved. Oman is mediating, the Strait is still an open question, and positioning has simply decided the worst case is off the table. That decision is reversible on one headline.
Resistance
83.63 — 50-day moving average
87.68 — gap fill
90.51 — 100-day moving average
Support
80.27 — 50% Fibonacci (tested, watch the close)
77.15 — 61.8% Fibonacci
75.69 — 200-day moving average
BTC
The bearish confluence flagged last week delivered. Divergence, overbought momentum, and the pattern of stalling at the 38.2% Fibonacci that has held since the break below $100K — all of it lined up at the same level.
BTC topped at 66,923 last Tuesday, within 400 points of the 67,316 retracement, and has come off 3,000 since. Price never tagged the level.
67,316 stays the number on any retest. Above it, 70,274 (50% Fibonacci) aligns with the 100-day moving average and 73,232 (61.8% Fibonacci) aligns with the 200-day. In an established downtrend it's common for bounces to stall at the first key Fibonacci, which is what just happened — but if that level goes, there is significant resistance at both retracements above it.
Structure stays lower highs until 67,316 is taken out on a closing basis.
Resistance
67,316 — 38.2% Fibonacci
70,274 — 50% Fibonacci / 100-day moving average
73,232 — 61.8% Fibonacci / 200-day moving average
Support
57,742 — July low
Week Ahead
Two central bank decisions this week — and both matter.
Wednesday is the FOMC. Rate hold is heavily priced in but the statement and press conference are what matter. With crude off its highs but still elevated and Iran unresolved, Warsh has every reason to stay hawkish. Watch what he says about the inflation outlook and whether September stays on the table.
Friday is the BOJ. Rates expected to hold but a growing number of banks are flagging the risk of a more hawkish communication given the yen at nearly four-decade lows. The BOJ is reportedly open to raising rates faster than every six months. Any hawkish signal Friday and USD/JPY moves fast. Any intervention from the Ministry of Finance would move it faster.
Iran and the Strait remain the wildcard across everything. Oman is mediating, strikes are paused, but nothing is agreed.
Stay close to the headlines.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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