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- The Week in FX and Crypto: July 21, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: July 21, 2026
Institutional Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
July 21, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — Round trips on CPI and Warsh, then Iran takes over again
EUR/USD — Volatility compressing, watch for the breakout
USD/JPY — Grinding higher, no BOJ, no trade
Gold — Compressing between the 20-day and the lows
Crude — Bearish reversal at resistance, Iran headlines reverse the move
BTC — Resistance intact, bias still lower
Week Ahead — ECB, tariff expiry, FOMC in sight, Iran the wildcard
FX Recap
Two stories again this week — and once again, neither resolved cleanly.
CPI came in soft across the board. Headline fell to 3.5% from 4.2%, core dropped to 2.6% from 2.9% — both well below consensus. The dollar sold off, EUR/USD bounced, rate cut bets crept back in. Then Warsh walked into his first congressional testimony 90 minutes later.
He gave the hawks the language — "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" — and gave the doves nothing concrete. No forward guidance, no signal on the next move, no hint of whether a hike or cut is coming at the July FOMC. The dollar recovered most of the CPI-driven losses by end of day.
To put it in context — DXY had been stuck between 100.5 and 102 for three weeks heading into the week. Traded up to 101.20 on Monday on hawkish Fed speak, dropped to 100.25 on the CPI print, then closed at 100.91. A lot of movement that went essentially nowhere.
Then Iran took over again.
The 60-day framework that looked like a deal in late June is now in pieces. US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran claiming the Strait is closed until further notice — CENTCOM disputes it but shipping has pulled back sharply. The naval blockade is back. Iranian oil sanctions waiver revoked. Crude jumped hard, gold reversed its bounce, the dollar got a safe-haven bid.
My read: the market spent the first half of the week repricing cuts on soft CPI, then spent the second half repricing risk on Iran. Round trips everywhere. The one clear takeaway — Warsh is not going to make this easy for anyone. No guidance means every data point and every headline moves markets more than it used to.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has been trading sideways since last week with Bollinger Bands compressing — volatility is contracting and the market is coiling for the next move. Momentum is elevated but not yet overbought.
The setup is straightforward — watch for a close beyond the outer bands to signal the next leg.
Resistance 1.1468 — upper Bollinger Band 1.1483 — last week's high
Support 1.1378 — last week's low 1.1340 — key Fibonacci level flagged at the low
USD/JPY
Continues the slow grind higher with no sign of the BOJ. The setup hasn't changed — you can't go long at 40-year highs and going short is a central bank gamble. Staying on the sidelines until the BOJ shows its hand.
Resistance 162.84 — recent high
Support 160.11 — 50-day moving average 159.37 — 100-day moving average 157.22 — 200-day moving average
Gold
Volatility compressing — price has been trading between the 20-day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band. Momentum is approaching oversold but no sign of a reversal yet.
The June 30th low at 3,943.29 continues to hold. Two levels to watch for the next directional clue — a close above the 20-day moving average at 4,065.09 would be significant, having only happened once in the past two weeks and not consistently since early May. A close below the recent low tells the other story.
Until one of those happens, this is a market waiting for a catalyst.
Resistance 4,065.09 — 20-day moving average (watch on closing basis)
Support 3,943.29 — June 30th low
Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)
Bearish reversal Monday after printing a new multi-week high at 85.39 — right into the 50-day moving average resistance. News this morning that the US and Iran may be talking again saw energies reverse hard off those highs.
Still entirely headline driven. Momentum is overbought and rolling over — positive developments on Iran can see a deeper pullback from here.
Resistance 85.13 — 50-day moving average (closing basis) 89.67 — 100-day moving average
Support 74.94 — 200-day moving average (closing basis)
BTC
No change to the technical picture — resistance zone flagged last week remains intact and the bias stays with the underlying downtrend unless we see a close above it.
Resistance 65,000/67,000 zone — upper Bollinger Band / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement confluence 70,274 — 50% Fibonacci 73,232 — 61.8% Fibonacci
Support 59,101 — June low
Week Ahead
The main event is still two weeks away — the FOMC meeting. Futures are heavily pricing a hold. Soft CPI took a July hike off the table — but crude pushing back higher on Iran and Warsh's "no tolerance" language keeps a September hike in the conversation. Every headline between now and the meeting matters.
On the calendar this week — ECB meeting is the standout. UK and Canadian CPI both due. Flash PMIs across Europe. A tariff expiry later in the week could add another layer to the inflation picture.
Iran and the Strait remain the wildcard across everything. Traffic through the Strait hasn't fully stopped — some ships are moving through with transponders off — but it's heavily restricted compared to early July. Until there's genuine resolution one way or the other, crude stays headline-driven and the dollar keeps its safe-haven floor.
USD/JPY at 40-year highs. BOJ hasn't moved. That situation doesn't resolve quietly either.
Stay close to the headlines.
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.
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