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- The Week in FX and Crypto: January 27, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: January 27, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
January 27, 2026
In This Issue
Last week's calls: BTC 86K exact support, EUR +156 pips, USD/JPY sidelined
BTC: Testing 86K after 11K decline, 78K critical next
EUR/USD: Broke December double top, eyeing 1.1918
USD/JPY: Down 2% - risk management over structure
FOMC Week: Key event for all markets
Week Ahead: Critical levels and catalysts
Last Week's Structure Analysis
USD/JPY:
The key story at the end of the week was the sharp drop in USD/JPY. Whether it was stealth intervention or well-timed "price checks" from the BOJ and the Fed, USD/JPY dropped over 2% from the high.
This highlights why we've been sidelined on USD/JPY long signals - risk management always comes first.
BTC:
Follow-through to exact support that the 98K failure pointed to: 86K (low 86,122).
Bearish divergence + overbought + 98K rejection played out exactly as mapped. Consolidation followed, unable to break back above 94,500 channel top.
Over 11K lower from flagged resistance, stopped at exact flagged support.
EUR/USD:
Consolidated as expected after hitting 61.8% Fib at 1.1720. Bounce off lows accelerated end of week alongside other majors on USD/JPY selloff-driven flows.
AUD & NZD:
Both currencies bid on broad USD weakness and improved risk sentiment. Stronger Australian data supported AUD. NZD followed on correlated risk flows.
Flow-driven move - sustainability depends on whether USD weakness persists.
Gold:
Remained firm as macro uncertainty and softer real yields supported defensive flows. Structural demand rather than short-term momentum driving strength.
Silver:
Stayed bid alongside gold on mix of safe-haven demand and improving industrial sentiment. More sensitive to shifts in risk and growth expectations than gold.
PRIVATE GROUP OPENING MARCH:
Live market structure analysis from institutional desk perspective. FX, crypto, futures.
Last week's examples:
BTC: Bearish confluence at 98K flagged and mapped ahead of time. Completed initial move down 11K to exact support at 86K (low 86,122). Both high and low Flagged in advance.
EUR/USD: Flagged consolidation after 61.8% Fib hit at 1.1720. Pulled back to 1.1670 (exact support level mapped in group), then rallied 156 pips to 1.1826.
This is the real-time analysis approach.
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Week Ahead
USD Index & Major Pairs:
The FOMC will be the key event for the week along with Powell's comments. Market expecting no change, but guidance on rates and inflation will drive volatility.
Dollar volatility from the FOMC can ripple into risk-sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD), BTC and precious metals.
The BOJ has a policy meeting this week as well. The key question is whether there's verbal or actual intervention. If there is, expect ripple effects across majors and crosses.
Risk management is key this week. With no BOJ action, expect consolidative price action around FOMC. With intervention, expect sharp moves.
BTC:
Testing 86K support after 11K decline from 98K. Momentum neutral (not oversold) - room for more downside if breaks.
Key levels:
86K: Current support (held so far)
78K: Major Fibonacci (38.2% of entire move) - critical level
Break of 78K opens path to low-70s
FOMC risk-on/risk-off flows could be the catalyst for next move. Watching for clean break or reversal confirmation.
EUR/USD:
Broke and closed above December double top (1.1804/1.1808). Momentum moving into overbought territory but no reversal signs yet.
Watch for sustained move back below double top. Key topside level: September high at 1.1918.
USD Index:
Extended and moving into oversold territory. Closed below lower Bollinger Band Friday.
Resistance: 98.65 Support: 96.38, then 96.22
Momentum neutral on weekly - bearish FOMC signals could drive USD lower.
USD/JPY:
Traded down to a low of 153.30 as of Monday morning.
Key downside levels:
151.98 (38.2% Fib)
149.70 area (200-day MA + 50% Fib)
Keep in mind: Technical levels carry less weight when Central Bank intervention is in play.
Gold & Silver:
FOMC will be key driver (rates/dollar impact). Gold holding safe-haven bid. Silver following gold while also sensitive to growth outlook from Powell.
Allocation Update
The systematic allocation continues performing well. Model navigating volatile January conditions with disciplined risk management. Institutional capital expected to continue scaling throughout Q1.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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