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- The Week in FX and Crypto: January 20, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: January 20, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
January 20, 2026
In This Issue
Last week's levels: BTC 98K, GBP/USD reversal, EUR/USD 200-MA
BTC: Fails at 98K
EUR/USD: Bounce off 200-day MA
USD/JPY: Risk management over structure
Gold & Silver: All-time highs
Week Ahead: Key levels and inflection points
Last Week's Structure Analysis
BTC:
98K resistance (38.2% Fib) flagged in advance. High: 97,922 - rejected 78 points from target. Momentum turned overbought, now trading at 91k after breaking back into multi-week range below 94,500.
GBP/USD:
Reversal bar off new low flagged on 4H chart. Traded up 100+ pips from confirmation level. Structure working as expected.
EUR/USD:
200-day MA at 1.1587 flagged as key support with oversold momentum. Rallied 100+ points.
USD/JPY:
Model not screening long trades despite technicals being aligned. BOJ intervention risk elevated - managing tail risk even when structure looks attractive.
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Last week's examples: All mapped in detail ahead of time. BTC 98K flagged resistance was the top(+7,000). Flagged bullish reversal in GBP which rallied +100 points. Flagged EUR/USD 200-MA which hit and rallied +100 points.
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Week Ahead
USD Index & Major Pairs:
USD Index:
Ran into resistance at 99.38 (61.8% Fibonacci) but wasn’t able to get a close above. Momentum was very overbought and priced reversed hard to start the week. 99.38 will continue to act as resistance. 98.42 will be the key support area that needs to hold for USD bulls.
USD Index
BTC:
Bearish divergence at last week's high + rejection at 98K suggests higher probability of downside continuation. 98k will continue to be topside resistance.
Risk off on Sunday night led to a break of the key support that I’ve been flagging since we broke out of the channel. We have strong bearish confluence with the failure at 98k, bearish divergence and now the break back below 94,500. 86k will be first support but then 78k the major Fibonacci (38.2% of entire move) will be significant.
EUR/USD:
Bounced off of 200 day moving average at 1.1587.
Key levels to watch on the bounce:
- 1.1666 (38.2% Fib)
- 1.1693 (50% Fib)
- 1.1720 (61.8% Fib)
Momentum was well oversold so it will likely take some time to normalize before the next leg either up or down.
USD/JPY:
The pair has cross-currents of drivers with geopolitical tension and lingering possibility of BOJ intervention. While there have been buy set-ups that meet the technical checklist, buy signals have been sidelined for weeks now in USD/JPY. It's not worth gambling against a Central Bank.
Gold & Silver:
Both at all-time highs. Coordinated precious metals strength. Watching for consolidation or sign of exhaustion.
Allocation Update
The systematic allocation continues scaling following successful launch. Model finished 2025 with strong double-digit returns. Now trading at increased size - institutional validation of the approach entering 2026.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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