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- The Week in FX and Crypto: January 13, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: January 13, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
January 13, 2026
In This Issue
First full week of 2026: Low vol environment
BTC: Resistance Holding at 94-95K
EUR/USD: Bearish reversals until Monday's bullish turn
Gold & Silver: Making all-time highs
Week Ahead: Key levels and what to watch
Market Structure Update
USD Index & Major Pairs:
Low volatility to start 2026 - typical for first full week of the year. Liquidity normalized. Risk-on tone with stocks up, FX pairs consolidating. Watching for volatility pickup as institutions fully return.
BTC:
Resistance at 94-95K (flagged July 5th) held perfectly. Multiple bearish confluence: reversal bar, bearish divergence, close back inside Bollinger Band.
Traded down to 89k- 5K+ move from the resistance zone.
Key levels: 78K support / 98K resistance. Range-bound until clean break.
EUR/USD:
Multiple bearish reversals since late December high. Every rally rejected - until Monday's bullish reversal toward 1.1700.
Momentum had been diverging (rising on lower price lows) - signaling downside exhaustion. Strong reversal to start the week.
Gold & Silver:
Both making all-time highs this week. Silver broke above $80 pivot - negating prior bearish structure. Precious metals showing coordinated strength into 2026.
PRIVATE GROUP OPENING MARCH:
Live market structure analysis from institutional desk perspective. FX, crypto, futures.
Example last week: BTC resistance at 94-95K flagged Monday morning with full breakdown. Topped 94K, 5K+ move.
This is the daily analysis approach.
First 25 spots: $300/month locked forever. Standard: $600.
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Educational only. Not trade recommendations.
Week Ahead
Key Levels:
BTC: 85K next support (Lower Bollinger Band) / 78K major
EUR/USD: Watching follow-through after Monday's reversal
Gold & Silver: All-time highs - continuation or pullback?
Key Events:
Second full trading week of 2026
Watching for volatility expansion
Early year chop typical
Focus:
Range-bound environment across major pairs. Patience required when structure isn't clear.
BTC example this week: Flagged 94-95K Monday with confluence mapped. Held perfectly, 5K+ lower. Waiting for confirmation vs forcing trades.
Allocation Update
The systematic allocation continues scaling following successful December launch. Model finished 2025 with strong double-digit returns. Now trading at increased size - institutional validation of the approach entering 2026.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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