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- The Week in FX and Crypto: February 3, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: February 3, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
February 03, 2026
In This Issue
Fed/BOJ coordination: USD/JPY down 4.4% in 3 days
BTC: Broke 80K low, downside pressure building
EUR/USD: Momentum fading, Fibonacci pullback playing out
Metals: Sharp reversals after making highs
Last Week's Structure Analysis
USD/JPY:
The Fed "price checked" USD/JPY sending it down 4.4% over 3 days to a low of 152.10 (closed Friday 154.46).
This is a much bigger signal than typical BOJ intervention - when there’s coordination between the Fed and the BOJ, it carries significantly more weight.
This highlights why we've remained sidelined on USD/JPY long signals for weeks. Risk management over structure.
The USD/JPY move had ripple effects across all major pairs, driving broad-based USD weakness mid-week.
BTC:
Failed to regain the channel bottom at 90,100. By week's end, it broke below the 86K support level flagged when BTC was at 97K.
BTC had multiple reasons to rally during January but continued grinding lower. 86K should now act as resistance, with 90K above that.
EUR/USD:
Made a high of 1.2082, benefiting from broad USD weakness mid-week.
Momentum was overbought and showing signs of exhaustion - each bounce becoming less meaningful. EUR took out the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1817 opening the door for a deeper correction towards 1.1735.
AUD & NZD:
Both currencies rallied sharply, benefiting from the broad USD selloff triggered by Fed/BOJ coordinated “price checks”.
Additional support came from improved China sentiment and firmer commodity prices. With the RBA and RBNZ holding relatively hawkish stances compared to other central banks, rate differentials continue supporting these currencies.
The moves were primarily flow-driven rather than fundamental shifts - sustainability depends on whether USD weakness persists and China stimulus hopes materialize.
Gold & Silver:
Both experienced sharp reversals this week after making highs. Momentum shifted with price action showing signs of exhaustion at the elevated levels.
PRIVATE GROUP OPENING MARCH:
Live market structure analysis from institutional desk perspective. FX, crypto, futures.
BTC: 16,000 points called in advance
98K resistance → topped 97,922
86K support → hit 86,122 exactly rallying 5,000 points
Both levels mapped before they hit
EUR/USD: 323 pips from mapped levels
200-day MA bounce: +133 pips
Fibonacci pullback: +190 pips
USD/JPY: Sidelined longs citing intervention risk → avoided 4.4% drop
This is the real time daily analysis typical in the group.
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Week Ahead
USD/JPY:
Filled the gap from Jan 23/26 to start the week. The bounce hit the 50% Fibonacci at 155.77 with momentum moving into the neutral zone. If the bounce continues the next resistance comes in at 156.63.
On the selloff, USD/JPY stopped right at the 38.2% Fib/support at 152.04 (April low to January high). If the BOJ/FED come in again149.75-150.02 (50% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average) will be the next major support.
BTC:
On Monday BTC flushed to the low 70s, then reclaimed 78k to close with a daily reversal and oversold momentum.
Resistance: 85k, then the rising channel base near 91k.
The 38.2% retracement that capped the last rally (98k) now shifts lower to 95k following the reset.
EUR/USD:
EUR took out the first Fibonacci on Monday at 1.1817. On a deeper correction 1.1735 and then 1.1656 should act as support. Momentum has already moved back to neutral territory.
Allocation Update
Strong performance in January despite volatile conditions. Model navigated the sharp mid-month USD selloff well, with particularly strong performance at month-end as long USD positions against EUR, GBP, CHF, and CAD contributed significantly.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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