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- The Week in FX and Crypto: February 24, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: February 24, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
February 24, 2026
In This Issue
Last Week's Highlights: EUR held key Fibonacci support, USD/JPY short-covering rally, BTC eyeing retest of lows
Geopolitical Risk: Iran escalation — impact on safe havens and crude
EUR/USD: Holding 1.1770 support, eyeing retest of resistance
BTC: Weak structure persists, watching 57,888 and 47,488 levels
USD/JPY: Safe-haven bid may do BOJ's work for them
Silver: Momentum turning higher off 20-day MA
Crude Oil: Testing upper Bollinger, reversal bar developing
Week Ahead: Key levels and geopolitical watch
Last Week's Structure Analysis
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD traded down to the 61.8% support (1.1770) of the Jan low to Jan high (1.1578 - 1.2082). Traded below on both Thursday and Friday but closed above both days and started this week with a bounce.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY traded up to the 61.8% Fibonacci of the move from the Feb 9 high to Feb 12 low and ended the week with momentum in neutral territory.
Market feels like traders were positioned short hoping for intervention. Would be surprising if this rally was driven by new longs — more likely short covering.
BTC:
BTC still struggles to rally to the 38.2% Fibonacci at 74,500. Rallies are muted and it feels like it wants to retest the 60K level.
Silver:
Silver closed last week right in front of the 38.2% Fibonacci at 86.08, which also lines up with the 20-day moving average. Momentum is pointing higher as it moves out of oversold territory.
Next key resistance levels are 92.87 (50% Fib) and then 99.66 (61.8% Fib).
If we see a pullback from here, look for support at the 72.00 area — Tuesday's low.
Crude Oil (CLH6):
March Crude was pressing up against the upper Bollinger Band on Friday at 66.88 with momentum approaching overbought. Monday is starting to print a reversal bar and it will be confirmed with a daily close below Friday's close at 66.43.
Week Ahead
Geopolitical Risk — Iran / Middle East:
Headlines Yesterday: U.S. ordered non-essential diplomats and their families to leave Lebanon. With the military buildup, this will clearly have an impact on markets if things continue to escalate or if there's actual military action.
USD/JPY:
Hard to see the BOJ intervening in USD/JPY — or needing to — if things escalate. JPY will continue to be bought as a safe haven, which does the work for them.
EUR/USD:
If EUR continues to hold the 61.8% support at 1.1770 watch for a retest of 1.1925/30 area where EUR resistance held on the 3 separate attempts to trade through earlier in the month.
If EUR gets a close under 1.1770 support the next key level is the 200 day moving average at 1.1650 and then January 19th low at 1.1578.
BTC
The 61.8% Fibonacci at 57,888 is a key level, but since we already had a bounce from that zone, there would be less significance if we test it again.
Beyond that is the major technical level is 47,488 — the 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire move from 0 to the all-time high last year.
CLH6
Watch for a test of 70.00 area if things continue to escalate with Iran but we might see the usual buy the rumor sell the fact.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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