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The Week in FX and Crypto: February 17, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
February 17, 2026
In This Issue:
Last week's Highlights: EUR/USD 100+ pips, BTC rollover flagged, Crude $1.40 drop
EUR/USD: Consolidating after sharp rally into resistance
BTC: Weak structure continues, eyeing retest of lows
USD/JPY: Intervention risk keeps rallies contained
Crude Oil & Natural Gas: Momentum shifts playing out
Week Ahead: Key levels and data to watch
Last Week's Structure Analysis
EUR/USD:
Following the bullish confluence flagged late the prior week at 1.1770 (61.8% Fibonacci + 20-day MA), EUR/USD rallied cleanly into the 50% retracement at 1.1924.
The move higher was textbook — momentum had reset to neutral after becoming overbought during January's rally, creating the conditions for a healthier retracement rather than a reversal. Price respected the support level precisely and had a strong bounce within 24 hours.
BTC:
Bitcoin's bounce off the 60K lows continued to underwhelm throughout the week.
After a sharp selloff into support near the 61.8% Fibonacci at 57,888 and a bullish reversal candle, the market's inability to generate follow-through momentum was a critical tell. At minimum, a proper bounce should have tested the 38.2% retracement near 74,500 — instead, BTC stalled well below that level and consolidated sideways.
As highlighted Thursday morning, the break back below 67K confirmed the weakness. The consolidation resolved lower as expected, with BTC trading below the range and now eyeing another test of the lows.
The structure remains bearish. Until price can reclaim 74,500, the path of least resistance stays to the downside.
Crude Oil (CLH6):
Wednesday's analysis flagged bearish structure as momentum diverged sharply from price. Despite crude trading within 1.4% of late-January highs, stochastic momentum had fallen roughly 24% — a classic sign of exhaustion.
The market delivered. Crude moved approximately $1.40 lower into the first support zone at 62.14 (38.2% Fibonacci). The subsequent bounce has retraced back toward the 20-day moving average at 62.67, but the move still appears corrective rather than a confirmed reversal.
Key downside levels remain 60.66 (50% Fib) and 59.29 (61.8% Fib) if weakness resumes.
Heating Oil (HOH6J6):
The reversal signal from last week played out well. Following the initial post highlighting bullish divergence, price rallied +1.35 and closed above the 20-day MA at 7.10 — strengthening the case that a short-term low was in place.
Momentum remains technically oversold but is starting to turn higher, suggesting the move may have further to run.
USD/JPY:
The pair continues to navigate intervention risk. Despite bullish divergence developing near recent lows, Japan's top currency official reminded markets they remain "on high alert" — even with USD/JPY near those lows.
As noted multiple times last week: trying to buy USD/JPY strength right now is like “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”. The technical setup may look attractive, but policy risk overrides structure when intervention is actively on the table.
Week Ahead
EUR/USD:
The pullback from 1.1924 has brought price back toward through the 1.1770 support. Momentum on the daily timeframe remains neutral.
EUR is at an inflection point with momentum near neutral and Bollinger Bands constricting.
Watch for momentum divergences or reversal signals at these inflection points rather than forcing directional bias.
BTC:
Structure remains weak. The consolidation broke lower as flagged, and price is now testing the lower end of recent ranges.
Until BTC can reclaim and hold above 74,500, the setup argues for caution on rallies. The next meaningful support comes in at the 61.8% Fibonacci near 57,888, though that level becomes less significant given we've already bounced off 60K once.
USD/JPY:
Intervention risk continues to cap upside. While bullish divergence persists on lower timeframes, Japan's currency officials remain vocal about their monitoring.
152.00 is the level worth watching — 38.2% Fibonacci retracement with upward-sloping trendline support. On a clean break below, next support levels are 149.70 and 147.38.
Rallies will likely be met with jawboning. Risk/reward skewed against longs until policy uncertainty clears.
Crude Oil:
The bounce off 62.14 has pushed price back toward the 20-day MA at 62.67, but the move still looks corrective.
If the 20-day fails to hold as resistance and price reclaims it convincingly, focus shifts back to topside targets. Otherwise, watch for another test of 60.66 or 59.29 on the downside.
Model Update
February performance remains positive following a modest gain in January. The model is currently running both long and short positions across USD pairs, with mixed exposure in the crosses performing well.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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