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- The Week in FX and Crypto: February 10, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: February 10, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
February 10, 2026
In This Issue
USD/JPY: Intervention risk fades
BTC: Structure weak after failure above 80K
EUR/USD: Correction stabilizes at key support
AUD & NZD: Consolidation after strong flows
Metals: Momentum rollover from highs
Last Week's Structure Analysis
Last Week’s Structure Analysis
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD retraced cleanly to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1770, measured from the January 19 low to the January 27 high. This level aligned precisely with the 20-day moving average, creating a well-defined area of structural support.
Momentum had reset back to neutral after becoming overbought during the rally into the highs, setting up a healthier pullback rather than a trend break. The response at this level reinforced the view that the move higher was correcting excess, not reversing.
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY continued its recovery following the BOJ/FED-driven low at 152.09 late in January. By the end of the week, the pair had retraced roughly 1.3% off the January highs, notably without significant BOJ jawboning.
The absence of intervention rhetoric allowed price to grind higher, but the broader backdrop still argued for caution — a theme that would become more important in the days ahead.
BTC:
Bitcoin remained under pressure throughout the week, failing to reclaim key resistance and instead stopping just ahead of a major Fibonacci level before bouncing nearly 10K to 71K. This marked the largest bounce since BTC first broke below 80K.
What stood out was not the bounce itself, but the lack of response to otherwise supportive news and data during the decline. Repeatedly, positive inputs failed to generate sustained upside — a classic late-stage bearish tell.
As highlighted multiple times during the selloff, the inability of bullish catalysts to move price meaningfully suggested that downside pressure remained dominant, even as tactical bounces developed.
AUD & NZD:
Both currencies pulled back during the week to the 38.2% Fibonacci support area before reversing into the close of the week.
PRIVATE GROUP ANALYSIS FROM THE WEEK
Real time market structure analysis from an institutional desk perspective across FX, crypto, and futures.
BTC
Flagged a potential bullish reversal on Feb 2 with a close near 78,462, while noting that failure to reclaim 80K quickly would likely lead to a deeper correction.
BTC failed to regain 80K and subsequently sold off nearly 18,000 points, making new lows since Q4 2024.
Structure and risk were framed before the move.
EUR/USD
Flagged bullish divergence and structural support late in the week at a key inflection level.
EUR/USD moved 45 pips higher within 24 hours following the signal.
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Week Ahead
USD/JPY:
USD/JPY had a big reversal to start the week after 6 consecutive green bars and a bullish reversal candle to finish the week. JPY strengthened after Prime Minister Takaichi vowed to build trust with the financial markets.
JGB’s are expected to rise as concerns over fiscal expansion ease. USD/JPY likely to consolidate in a wide range as the move was not driven by intervention.
BTC:
The Bullish reversal off the low and also right in front of a significant Fibonacci at the end of the week provided temporary relief. The 10k point bounce has been the biggest rally we’ve seen since it first traded 80,000. 79,250-80,000 is near term target and would suggest we’ve seen a near term low.
EUR/USD:
There was bullish confluence on Friday at the low. The 61.8% Fibonacci and the 20 day moving average acted as support. Momentum had moved into neutral territory. EUR/USD is starting the week on the back of a bullish close on Friday. 1.1765/70 will be the key level on the downside. If price follows through on the bullish structure from Friday, the key levels on the topside will be 1.1922 (50% Fibonacci) and then 1.1959 (61.8% Fibonacci).
Model Update
January finished with a modest positive return for the month after a challenging last two weeks of January. The over 4% directional move in the USD the last two weeks of the month created headwinds but the strong performance at the beginning of January and then reversals at the very end of the month were able to offset the losses. Performance is positive to start the month with short USD positions, and mixed positions in the crosses both performing well.
Next Tuesday: Weekly market update.
— Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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