In This Issue

• FX Recap — Japan intervenes twice, Washington joins in

• EUR/USD — Bearish reversal at the 100-day, headwind on rallies

• USD/JPY — Called it: 163.99 to 155.23 in three sessions

• Gold — Volatility at its lowest since September 2025

• Crude — Second Monday gap lower, sitting on the 200-day

• BTC — Compressing, bands as tight as they've been all year

• Week Ahead — Payrolls Friday, the first real test of the yen

FX Recap

Iran drove the tape for a month. Last week Japan took the wheel.

The MoF finally showed up — twice, big, and with Washington standing behind them. Thursday night in Tokyo the yen ripped from ¥162.80 to ¥157 in under an hour. Friday brought a second round, and by the end of the week the monthly intervention total was a record. Monday both governments confirmed what everyone had already worked out: the operations were coordinated, and they're not done.

This is the first joint US-Japan intervention in fifteen years, and the last one went the other way — selling yen after the 2011 earthquake. Washington wasn't subtle about it either. Public backing for the operations, an explicit line that the yen is undervalued, open pressure on the BOJ to hike, and the President saying Japan wanted help and got it. Treasury funded its side by selling euros from reserves, which is worth holding onto when you look at where EUR/USD turned last week.

The BOJ held at 1%, as expected after June. One dissent for a hike. The board flagged scope to move as soon as September, and Washington has now made that meeting the most important thing on any central bank calendar between here and then. Parts of the street already treat a September hike as done.

USD/JPY traded down to 155.23 Monday, the strongest yen since early May.

My read: they bought a level, not a trend. What they actually bought is time until September, and Washington has made clear what they expect done with it. If the hike comes, the floor holds. If it doesn't, we find out what intervention buys on its own — and the answer is usually not much.

One thing across the board: volatility is compressed almost everywhere. EUR/USD, gold, and BTC are all coiled. Markets are waiting. Payrolls Friday is the most likely thing to make them stop.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rallied to 1.1559 last week, pushing just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April high to June low before stalling just shy of the 100-day moving average at 1.1568 and posting a bearish reversal.

The reversal came with confluence. Price closed back below the upper Bollinger Band after two consecutive closes above it, and momentum is overbought, crossed down, and pointing lower.

That combination should give the euro headwinds on any rally back toward last week's high.

Resistance
1.1559 — last week's reversal bar high
1.1568 — 100-day moving average
1.1630 — 200-day moving average

Support
1.1477 — 50-day moving average
1.1433 — 20-day moving average
1.1340 — major Fibonacci

USD/JPY

Called it. Not the timing, not the size, and not the fact that Washington would be standing alongside — but the shape was right. We wrote last week that any significant downside move would likely be central bank driven and fast.

Last week's levels are gone. The pair cut through the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day in three sessions on the way from 163.99 to 155.23. Everything that was support is now overhead.

The moving averages are stacked above price for the first time in months, with the 200-day at 158.02 the first real test on any bounce. 155.23 is the level that gets tested to see whether the floor holds.

Resistance
158.02 — 200-day moving average
160.03 — 100-day moving average
161.27 — 50-day moving average

Support
155.23 — Monday's intervention low

Gold

Gold continues to consolidate, starting this week not far from where it started last — 4,051.89. Volatility hasn't been this low since September 2025. When that compression broke, gold rallied over 20% in two months, retraced, then pushed on to the January highs.

Resistance
4,138.37 — upper Bollinger Band
4,165.74 — 50-day moving average
4,406.83 — 100-day moving average

Support
3,979.44 — lower Bollinger Band
3,959.84 — July low
3,943.29 — lowest low since the January high

Crude (CL1 - Cont. Contract)

Crude gapped open lower Monday on positive news out of the Iran talks — the second Monday in a row it's done so, and neither gap has been filled. The move took price below both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, and it's now sitting just above the 200-day at 76.28.

Momentum is close to neutral, which leaves it free to go either way. This one trades on headlines.

Two unfilled gaps overhead are worth keeping on the radar. They tend to get filled eventually.

Resistance
81.35 — 20- and 50-day moving averages
90.10 — 100-day moving average
91.66 — upper Bollinger Band

Support
76.28 — 200-day moving average
71.03 — lower Bollinger Band
67.04 — lowest low since the March high

BTC

BTC is consolidating and volatility is compressing — the Bollinger Bands are as narrow as they've been since the start of the year, running 62,466 to 66,145.

67,316 stays the number above. The 38.2% rejection held and structure stays lower highs until that level goes on a closing basis. A break of the upper band at 66,145 is the first sign the range is resolving higher.

Resistance
66,145 — upper Bollinger Band
67,316 — 38.2% Fibonacci
68,485 — 100-day moving average

Support
63,244 — 50-day moving average
62,466 — lower Bollinger Band

Week Ahead

Payrolls Friday, 8:30am ET. That's the week.

June came in at 57K against a 110K forecast, the weakest in four months, and April and May were revised down by 74K combined. The labour picture has been softening and the revisions have been running the wrong way.

It matters twice over. It's the primary input to the September FOMC alongside CPI five days later — and it's the first real test of the yen. A soft print does the MoF's work for them. A strong one puts the dollar back on the front foot and tells us what the intervention actually bought.

Iran stays the wildcard on crude. Two unfilled gaps overhead and a market sitting on its 200-day. One headline either way.

Market Notes

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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark

Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager specializing in systematic global macro and FX strategies, with experience across institutional trading platforms, major banks, and hedge funds.

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