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- The Week in FX and Crypto: April 7, 2026
The Week in FX and Crypto: April 7, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
April 07, 2026
In This Issue
Iran — deadline day, market sniffing a deal
Crude — $113 trading near high
BTC — $68,500, consolidating, bias unchanged
EUR/USD — EU tariff threat adds new headwind
USD/JPY — bearish reversal setup intact
EUR/GBP — bearish reversal setting up
Iran
Last week I said April 6 was the next hard date. We're here.
Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires tonight. The threat couldn't be more explicit — power plants, bridges, critical infrastructure. "Power Plant Day and Bridge Day" in his own words. This is maximum escalation language.
This morning the tone is more mixed. Markets remain elevated, but price action is two-way and headline-driven. There are early signs of leaning toward a delay or de-escalation, but conviction is low and nothing is resolved.
Iran said that "no rational person" would agree to a ceasefire under threat. But diplomats are clearly working the phones. Trump pushed the deadline another day while talks continue. That extension is the tell — if escalation was inevitable, you don't extend.
My read: the market is right to be cautiously optimistic but wrong to get comfortable. This is binary event risk sitting right in front of us. A deal sends crude sharply lower, USD retreats, risk assets rally. A breakdown — infrastructure strikes — sends crude to new highs, USD bid, risk off hard.
Key Levels This Week
Crude (CLK6 — May)
Crude pushed higher today, trading up to 115.48 before reversing and closing back below 113.41. In this environment, levels carry less weight. Price can move $10 on a single headline, and intraday moves are being driven more by developments around Iran than by technical structure.
BTC 74,500 — key pivot, must close above to change bias.
- 68,500 — current price
- 57,797 — 61.8% Fib (Nov 2022 low → ATH)
- 48,698 — 61.8% Fib of entire BTC move
EUR/USD 1.1354 — key support, 38.2% Fib (Jan 2025 low → Jan 2026 high) 200-day MA / Fib confluence at 1.1670-80 — topside resistance
USD/JPY 160.46 — only a close above negates bearish setup 159.47 — current price, bearish engulfing forming 157.90 — initial objective, lower Bollinger Band
EUR/GBP 0.8736 — close above negates bearish setup 0.8667 — initial objective, 20-day MA 0.8605/10 — double bottom, Feb and March lows
Crude
WTI pushed higher yesterday, trading up to 115.48 before reversing back below 113.41.
Price action remains highly headline-driven. While there are moments where the market leans toward de-escalation, crude continues to hold near the highs, reflecting how tight and uncertain the situation remains.
From a structural standpoint, crude broke above 101.67 last week — the top of the multi-week range — which now acts as support. The March 9th high at 113.41 remains a key reference level, although in the current environment levels are less reliable given the speed of headline-driven moves.
The broader picture hasn’t changed. A deal would likely send crude sharply lower, while further escalation — particularly any disruption to infrastructure — would keep upward pressure on prices and extend the current move. In this environment, intraday levels matter less, and price is being driven primarily by developments around Iran.
BTC
$68,500. Consolidating. Still below 74,500.
The setup hasn't changed — it's just grinding. Q1 closed red. No clean close above the key pivot. The macro backdrop remains unfriendly — Fed holding rates, oil-driven inflation keeping rate cuts pushed to H2 2026, ETF outflows persisting.
While below 74,500 the door stays open to 57,797 — the 61.8% Fib of the November 2022 low to the ATH. Below there, 48,698 — the 61.8% Fib of the entire BTC move. That's the bigger level.
Need a clean close and hold above 74,500 to change the picture. Hasn't happened.
EUR/USD
Consolidating around the 20-day moving average, roughly in the middle of the four-week range. No clean directional break — but a new headwind emerged this week.
Reports that Trump is pushing for a 15-20% minimum tariff on EU goods put fresh pressure on the pair. Combined with the USD safe-haven bid from Iran, the path of least resistance looks lower.
Key support on the downside: 1.1354 — the 38.2% Fib of the move from the January 2025 low to the January 2026 high. That's the first level I'm watching on a closing basis. Topside resistance remains the 200-day MA and Fib confluence. Only a close over that zone changes the bearish bias.
USD/JPY
Bearish reversal setup intact.
USDJPY had strong bearish confluence at the end of March. Bearish divergence and a reversal at the upper Bollinger Band with overbought momentum set the bias lower. A daily close above 160.46 would negate the setup.
Initial objective: 157.90 — the lower Bollinger Band.
The BOJ remains in a difficult spot. Intervening against a war-driven USD move is a different calculation than pushing back against pure speculation. But 160 is not a level they can ignore indefinitely.
EUR/GBP
Bearish reversal set up.
Momentum is overbought and today's price action looks like a bearish reversal. A close above today's high at 0.8736 negates the setup. Initial objective is 0.8667 — the 20-day moving average.
Downside follow-through from there targets the double bottom zone at 0.8605-0.8610 — the February and March lows. That's a significant support area and the bigger objective if momentum continues lower.
Week Ahead
The Iran deadline dominates everything, but there are a few key data releases this week.
FOMC minutes Wednesday — Powell was hawkish at the last meeting, stressing persistent inflation rather than weak growth. The minutes will be parsed for any shift in tone. Rate cuts have been pushed further out, with timing still uncertain.
CPI Friday, PCE Thursday — energy is the story. Core has held up better, but crude at these levels keeps headline inflation elevated.
RBNZ Wednesday — expected to hold at 2.25%, but the narrative is shifting toward a more cautious or potentially hawkish stance given energy-driven inflation.
Everything still runs through one question: does the Strait reopen? A deal changes the entire macro picture — crude lower, USD lower, risk assets higher. No deal and we stay in a tighter, more volatile environment with the Iran trade firmly in place.
The Strait is the market right now. Everything else is secondary until it resolves.
Market Notes
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