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The Week in FX and Crypto: April 28, 2026
30 Years of Market Structure, Distilled Weekly.
mark schaefer
April 28, 2026
In This Issue
FX Recap — dollar stabilizes, FOMC and ECB in focus
Crude — testing top of range on OPEC headlines
BTC — double top, divergence, retest of 74,500 pivot in view
EUR/USD — bearish structure intact, key levels in play
USD/JPY — shorts leaning on BOJ level, squeeze risk building
NZD/USD — stalling at 61.8% Fib, bearish reversal forming
FX Recap
The dominant theme this week was a stabilizing dollar after several weeks of strength tied to the rally in crude. The dollar had given back much of its March safe-haven gains as ceasefire hopes built — but with U.S.–Iran talks now stalled, the relief rally in risk assets has lost momentum and the dollar has found support, at least for now.
Price action reflected that pause with FX markets trading in wide ranges. Moves were increasingly driven by positioning adjustments rather than fresh macro catalysts.
The bigger story now shifts forward. The FOMC meeting kicks off today and concludes Wednesday, with the decision widely expected to be a hold. With energy prices staying bid and inflation sticky, the focus won't be the decision itself — it'll be the tone of Powell's press conference and how concerned the Fed sounds about the lasting impact of higher oil prices.
The ECB follows Thursday. A hold is the base case, but growing market chatter around potential ECB rate increases later in the year is worth watching — any hawkish lean could narrow the rate differential and bring fresh buyers into EUR.
For now, markets are in a holding pattern — range-driven, headline-sensitive, and waiting for the next catalyst.
Crude (June)
Crude looked to be settling into further consolidation to start the week — another inside day Monday, momentum neutral, price mid-range. That changed Tuesday morning. OPEC headlines pushed price to the top of the 80–101 range, with momentum now moving into overbought territory.
The range that has held for weeks remains intact, but price is now testing the upper end. A sustained move above 101 would signal a breakout — until then this remains a range trade, with price stretched at the topside.
BTC
BTC printed a double top this morning with a bearish engulfing candle. While price briefly traded through the 50% Fibonacci level at 78,977, it has not closed above it. Bearish divergence on the new high adds to the confluence — the rally is becoming stretched.
Near term, I'm looking for a retest of the 74,500 pivot. On a continuation lower, support levels come in at 72,055 (38.2% Fib), followed by 69,759 (50% Fib) and 67,464 (61.8% Fib).
A close above 78,977 would negate the near-term bearish setup.
EUR/USD
This week's setup played out well. I flagged the bearish reversal at 1.1745–50 in the private feed and on LinkedIn, with 1.1682 as the first key objective. Price hit that level (+60 pips), bounced 70+ pips, and a new reversal flagged this morning is also working.
The bearish daily structure remains intact. On a retest of support, expect less of a response — the 20-day MA and 38.2% Fibonacci sit clustered at 1.1680–85. Below that, the 50% Fib at 1.1630 comes into view, followed by the 61.8% Fib at 1.1573.
To the upside, 1.1780 should cap near-term rallies. The bearish structure is only negated on a daily close above 1.1936.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is sitting just under 160 — the key psychological level and the unspoken line for the BOJ. No sign of intervention yet, but momentum is pushing into overbought territory and Bollinger Bandwidth is compressing, signaling a volatility expansion is approaching.
The setup feels familiar. Shorts are leaning against the theoretical BOJ seller at 160, but without actual selling the pair isn't moving. This is exactly the kind of structure where shorts get squeezed over the level — and then it gets hit. I've seen that movie many times.
The upper Bollinger Band sits at 159.96, with the lower at 158.46. With volatility compressing into this range, a resolution is coming — the only question is direction.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD has been bumping against the 61.8% Fibonacci at .5936 for two weeks, with momentum steadily fading — running out of upward pressure. A bearish reversal printed on the 4-hour chart Monday morning.
The first meaningful support doesn't show up until .5833, where the 38.2% Fibonacci and the 20-day moving average converge. Beyond that, .5805 (50% Fib) and .5776 (61.8% Fib) are the next levels to watch.
The bearish structure is only negated on a close above .5936.
Week Ahead
FOMC Wednesday and ECB Thursday are the key events. Beyond central banks, the Iran/energy backdrop remains the macro anchor — any meaningful shift toward escalation or resolution will continue to dictate direction across FX and commodities.
With positioning cleaner and momentum less extended, the default remains range-driven, tactical price action. The key question: does a central bank catalyst reintroduce trend — or do markets continue to absorb and consolidate?
Market Notes
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Next Tuesday: Weekly market update. — Mark
Meridian Compass is brought to you by Mark Schaefer, a portfolio manager with over 30 years experience developing and trading systematic strategies in global futures and FX at major banks and hedge funds.
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